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#EP2019 in the UK
As it seems certain the UK will be voting in May, it's time for a #pollofpolls and a seat projection.
I am using the 6 most recent polls bookended by 2 @YouGov polls, one published today.
First start with the last election and the current polling.
#EP2019 in the UK
As it seems certain the UK will be voting in May, it's time for a #pollofpolls and a seat projection.
I am using the 6 most recent polls bookended by 2 @YouGov polls, one published today.
First start with the last election and the current polling.
@YouGov 3/7
#EP2019 in the UK
Here are my projections for the 4 constituencies in the South & East of England.
This was the region which delived the "Leave" in the 2016 #brexit referendum, although London voted "Remain".
Most of @UKIP vote in 2014 has now switched to @brexitparty_uk
#EP2019 in the UK
Here are my projections for the 4 constituencies in the South & East of England.
This was the region which delived the "Leave" in the 2016 #brexit referendum, although London voted "Remain".
Most of @UKIP vote in 2014 has now switched to @brexitparty_uk
@YouGov @UKIP @brexitparty_uk 4/7
#EP2019 in the UK
Here are my projections for the 3 constituencies in the English Midlands & Wales.
This region marginally voted "Leave" in 2015 but not delivering Brexit is costing @conservatives votes & saeats with @UKLabour gaining.
Ominous signs for a General Election?
#EP2019 in the UK
Here are my projections for the 3 constituencies in the English Midlands & Wales.
This region marginally voted "Leave" in 2015 but not delivering Brexit is costing @conservatives votes & saeats with @UKLabour gaining.
Ominous signs for a General Election?
@YouGov @UKIP @brexitparty_uk @Conservatives @UKLabour 5/7
#EP2019 in the UK
Here are my projections for the 4 constituencies in the North of England and Scotland.
North of England was marginally "Leave", but Scotland was "Remain".
Again @Conservatives being squeezed by @brexitparty_uk on one side and @UKLabour on the other.
#EP2019 in the UK
Here are my projections for the 4 constituencies in the North of England and Scotland.
North of England was marginally "Leave", but Scotland was "Remain".
Again @Conservatives being squeezed by @brexitparty_uk on one side and @UKLabour on the other.
@YouGov @UKIP @brexitparty_uk @Conservatives @UKLabour 6/7
#EP2019 in the UK
My national seat projection sees a @UKIP wipe-out and @brexitparty_uk gaining.
@UKLabour will be the biggest party.
@Conservatives lose half their MEPs.
@TheIndGroup are not getting the critical mass to take a seat.
With no NI data I predict no change
#EP2019 in the UK
My national seat projection sees a @UKIP wipe-out and @brexitparty_uk gaining.
@UKLabour will be the biggest party.
@Conservatives lose half their MEPs.
@TheIndGroup are not getting the critical mass to take a seat.
With no NI data I predict no change
@YouGov @UKIP @brexitparty_uk @Conservatives @UKLabour @TheIndGroup 7/7
#EP2019 in the UK
Finally what does the extension of Brexit mean for the European Parliament groups?
The success of @UKLabour is likely to be one of the few bits of good news for the centre-left S&D group.
I expect to see a major re-alignment on the right, after May.
#EP2019 in the UK
Finally what does the extension of Brexit mean for the European Parliament groups?
The success of @UKLabour is likely to be one of the few bits of good news for the centre-left S&D group.
I expect to see a major re-alignment on the right, after May.
