Thread by @charliewinter

1. Okay, so I have sat and thought for a bit. This is why I think the #Baghdadi video is worth talking about:

2. In terms of content, it is same old, same old—#IS isn’t defeated, the jihad continues, yada yada yada. However, it matters less for *what* Baghdadi says than for *how* Baghdadi says it.

3. First, because it is a video, it is a firm proof of life. If it was just a photograph of him, everyone would be crying “body double.” This means they can’t.

4. Second, he looks healthy—a bit fat if anything—and militarised (there’s a gun right there). He is being cast not as some distant, faraway caliph who’s hiding from his enemies, but as one who is hands-on and still-commanding.

5. Third, he is *shown* talking to his inner circle, not to his supporters (even though the message is really directed at them). This really matters. It makes the video more about #IS the organisation than #IS the diffuse global network.

6. Fourth, and connected to the above, Baghdadi can be seen leafing through operational digests pertaining to different #IS provinces (#Syria/#Iraq/etc. but also, interestingly, #Turkey). This is about showing him to be plugged in, a functioning leader.

7. The risks attached to producing a video like this are profound. Its existence shows he/his inner circle are *very* confident of their setup. The fact that, content-wise, it doesn’t buck the already-established propaganda line is interesting and revealing.

8. It indicates that the value of this video is strategic more than it is tactical. This is not a call-to-arms, but a call-to-continuation. #IS is showing itself to be dynamic, alive and well, and calling on its core to keep to the cause no matter what.

9. The fact that it is emerging now matters a heck of a lot. As @ajaltamimi and I wrote last week, #IS has been pivoting away from its proto-state project in #Syria/#Iraq for more than a year now. This video turns that page definitively.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

10. Crucially, its release was not contingent on #SriLanka or a response to #Christchurch (hence why the former was tacked on as audio and the latter wasn’t mentioned at all). The propagandists had something else in mind here.

I recommend also checking out these two threads for more on the #Baghdadi video:

@SimNasr

https://twitter.com/SimNasr/status/1122503555989037057

@pieternanninga

https://twitter.com/pieternanninga/status/1122952997561163782

@SimNasr @pieternanninga Another good take on the Baghdadi speech, this one by @Minalami

https://twitter.com/Minalami/status/1122969597743910914

@SimNasr @pieternanninga @Minalami The thoughts of @Mr0rangetracker are also well worth checking out:

https://twitter.com/Mr0rangetracker/status/1122943325584203777