,
17 tweets,
9 min read
Read on Twitter
The three major groups in Nigeria #BokoHaram (Shekau's JAS), #ISWAP and #Ansaru had their most active week of media releases this week. In addition to the highlight of their contents, I will also share my thoughts on where I think this decade-old insurgency is heading.
#Thread
#Thread
1. Let me start with highlights from #BokoHaram Shekau's JAS. JAS acknowledged the Death of Man Chari Abū Sadīq al-Bāmāwī. He was the commander that issued the first protest against the deposition of Shekau by ISIS. He led the group as a commander & Imam. See Text 73 of BH Reader
3. Ibrahim Yola from JAS citing Quranic verses and Hadiths on the virtues of jihad and striving for martyrdom in the month of Ramadan. He invoked the prophetic battles fought during Ramadan.
4. With the exception of #Ansaru, over 90% of the arsenals #ISWAP and #BokoHaram are using in this conflict are coming directly from what they confiscate from the Nigerian Army. JAS refilling the Tank they confiscated from the Nigerian Army with Petrol.
5. There have been several reports that #BokoHaram destroys communication masts in the #LakeChad. This is one of the first video evidence that lends credence to that claim.
6. The world of JAS Audio, Video and Book Publishing Department. JAS said they are fighting Media warfare like the companions of the prophet like Ka`ab b. Mālik, Ḥassān ibn Thābit, and ʿAbdullāh ibn Rawāḥah ibn Thaʿlabah.
7. Some dead JAS members. What is really shocking to me is the relatively young age of these boys. I can't believe that these young boys are the people fighting against the Nigerian Army with all the resources spent since 2009. These are child soldiers.
8. More evidence of child soldiers. These young boys are either conscripted into JAS or children of the 1st-Generation of JAS fighters. They are the category of fighters that dominate the field today. It is strange.
10. With the exception of #Ansaru, over 90% of the arsenals #ISWAP and #BokoHaram are using in this conflict are coming directly from what they confiscate from the Nigerian Army. How a large scale confiscation of this nature is taking place is beyond comprehension?
11. In addition to its 1st Fulfude message, #Ansaru released more messages explaining the conditions of living in Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Kufr and the issue of Takfīr which is the major ideological issue that fractured the three groups. The future of Ansaru is uncertain.
12. Although there are speculations that #Ansaru might be involved in the instability in Northwest Nigeria, there is no evidence yet of such involvement. Nonetheless, the verbal persecution of the Fulanis in Nigeria explains Ansaru outreach to the community.
13. This conflict will not go anytime soon. The war economy from the military, governmental agencies, academic expert industry, think tanks, humanitarian agencies, De-radicalization programs et al will continue as business as usual. The industry has become a burgeoning business.
14. More reports and articles will be written (I have counted more than 500 reports and 500 articles), more books, more conferences, more "expert workshops" but NOTHING will change. If all the recommendations of 10yrs did not change anything, nothing will change going forward.
15. The debate between the "Nigeria-centrists" and the "transnational centrists" will also continue to sustain the relevance of the "expert industry". That debate has more to do with the interests of the "policy industry" than the realities of the victims of the conflict.
16. The Nigerian state cannot solve this conflict and the jihadi groups cannot be appeased. They can negotiate on prisoners exchange but negotiation to end the conflict is not feasible. The state is becoming overstretched and the citizens will have to provide their own security.
