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My take on the #Iraq Stock Exchange for May: The early signs of the return of the liquidity to the real economy continue.
iraq-businessnews.com/2019/06/06/ira…
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iraq-businessnews.com/2019/06/06/ira…
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After, what seems like forever, it’s looking increasingly likely that year-over-year growth in M2 (a proxy for economic activity) is finally tracking increasing oil revenues, however, more data points are needed before this short-term trend can become sustainable
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But the signs continue to point to increased liquidity and down the road an economic pickup. This is mostly, due to the central role of the government’s spending on the non-oil economy.
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The government spending paralysis seems to have come to an end in March as the 2019 budget was only passed into law in late February.
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The silver lining of the lack of spending is a growth in the budget surplus to an est 26-mnth cumulative surplus of $25.8bn by end of February. The 2019 budget’s non-oil investment programme est. $12.5bn is equal to about a 7.5% stimulus to the est. non-oil GDP for 2019
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