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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
NEW 2020 Dem. poll from The Economist/YouGov: Warren pulls ahead of Sanders & into 2nd place (w/in margin of error). This wk & change vs last wk:

Biden: 26% (-1)
Warren: 16 (+5)
Sanders: 12 (-4)
Buttigieg: 8 (-1)
Harris: 6 (-1)
O'Rourke: 3 (+1)

Typical caveat re: watch the avgs
Full results: d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…
This week's new Economist/YouGov poll also has Warren up with the best favorability ratings.

% favorable minus % unfavorable, among Democrats:

Warren: 50
Biden: 43
Sanders: 43
Harris: 41
Buttigieg: 40
Booker: 34
O'Rourke: 31
Corrected for name recognition these numbers change to:

Warren: 61
Buttigieg: 60
Harris: 56
Booker: 50
Biden: 49
Castro: 47
Sanders: 46
O'Rourke:45
The Economist's poll with YouGov this week shows that Democrats put a premium on candidates who can win, but they still have policy considerations.

% saying it is more important for a candidate...

to be able to win in November: 60%
to share the same policy goals: 40%
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More from @gelliottmorris see all

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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
1. NEW from me: Average levels of racial prejudice have declined in America, but at the same time, racial identity has become more important in determining voting behaviour. How do we reconcile these two seemingly contradictory trends? [THREAD] economist.com/united-states/…
2. White nationalism has occupied a lot of media attention over the past three years. Rightly so; Some people have done violent, nauseating things the media needs to cover. But this gives a false impression that racism in America might be on the increase. It is not.
3. A lot of discrimination today comes from the mind, rather than the mouth or fist. Inner prejudice—"implicit biases"—cause employers and the education system to be biased against African Americans, and cause cops to stop black drivers disproportionately often than white ones.
Read 11 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
1. Vote choice in the 2018 midterms was correlated w/ Trump approval at 0.98. If the same thing happens in 2020, it's going to be hard for POTUS to win re-election if he's below ~47(?)% approval. That's not impossible, but he's at 42% today and has never been above 45. <THREAD>
2. Related: I've said it 1e06 times since 2015, but it bears repeating: new poli sci says the assumptions underlying econometric election forecasts apply *MUCH* less under Trump. That's b/c of (1) a longer trend of polarization on economic evaluations & (2) POTUS's uniqueness.
3. A note: when people say "it's the economy, stupid" they typically infer that voters are making sociotropic (and retrospective) evaluations of the economy. But that's not 100% of it! Local conditions matter! Those that feel "left behind" by the pace of the economy grow anxious.
Read 13 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
1. I'll add that despite what you hear about the Democrats' "extremism", "identity politics," etc the filtering process that is the Dem nomination produces more "electable" candidates than the GOP's, due to the former being more representative of all of Americans than the latter.
2. Of course, the question of whether "electability" is an overrated concept still holds. And this pattern isn't hard and fast. Due to negative partisanship, polarization, etc any nominee from either party is going to face a tough uphill battle with voters of the other party.
3. That battle can be exacerbated by certain things (being a "socialist," a minority or a woman among them), but generally, the Dems' pool of nominees more traditionally "electable" than the GOP's (see: Santorum, Giuliani, etc), & the filter doesn't remove all extremism (Trump).
Read 4 tweets

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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
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Allen White
@LudgateAlien
1/ A short thread on the YouGov poll on the #EUelections2019 #Poll

My own interpretations and views, using information from the YouGov website.

Headline is Brexit Party leading at 30% followed by Labour at 21%.

29-30 April
2/ So what can we learn from this poll beyond the headlines?

Firstly, it is a poll. Polls have a margin of error.

Next, the headline numbers exclude Don’t Know (DK) and Won’t Vote (WV).

This chart shows the extent of these categories 👇🏽
3/ As can be seen in the chart, DK topped the poll! Ahead of even the BP.

And WV came in 3rd, behind the BP but ahead of all other parties. More people stated they Will Not Vote than those who support the Labour Party. Astonishing really!

More about this later.
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Lola Netty
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The prosecutor #Biden got fired was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into the natural gas firm #Burisma Holdings that employed Biden’s younger son, Hunter, as a board member. thehill.com/opinion/white-…
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Imogen Arate (Poets and Muses host)
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@jaketapper @LucyFlores @CNNSotu @JoeBiden @TheCut "Offered" has a ring of solicitation in it. According to both @LucyFlores & numerous news footages of #Biden's #UnwantedTouching, he NEVER solicited consent, but took a #privilege that was not his to take. #OurBodiesOurHomes #OnlyYesMeansYes
@jaketapper @LucyFlores @CNNSotu @JoeBiden @TheCut 2/ And the audacity of of saying "And not once - never - did I believe I acted inappropriately. If it is suggested I did so, I will listen respectfully. But it was never my intention.
The 1st part, using his own assessment to measure others' feelings wo their input-cute!
@jaketapper @LucyFlores @CNNSotu @JoeBiden @TheCut 3/ I wonder, if @pewresearch or some other researchers (FYI, @ConversationEDU) did a #survey of accused/convicted #sexualharassment & #sexualassault predators, how many will offer that exact defense?
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Ivan Katchanovski
@I_Katchanovski
New KMIS #Poll : 51% of residents of #Ukraine support and 38% oppose giving autonomy for the separatist-controlled part of #donbas if this would be needed to end the war and resolve this #conflict peacefully. #Donbass kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…
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The KMIS poll shows that views of most Ukrainians on these issues are more liberal and democratic than views of most Ukrainian politicians and many intellectuals, who publicly claim to support democracy, freedom, and European values but in fact act in the opposite way.
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Cyrus Toulabi
@CyrusToulabi
#NEW: Rick Gates told Mueller that he and Manafort shared Trump Campaign Polling Data in 2016 w/ Konstantin Kilimnik, who has ties to Russian Intelligence.

In new unsealed court docs, it was revealed that Gates was at least one source for the revelation.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#BREAKING: In new court filing, it was revealed that Konstantin Kilimnik...WAS IN DC FOR THE INAUGURATION.

The Manafort and Gates associate, with ties to Russian Intelligence, met with Manafort about the "Russia-Ukraine peace plan."

#REDFLAG: In court transcripts, Andrew Weissman, senior Mueller prosecutor, suggested Konstantin Kilimnik's relationship w/ Manafort & Gates...TIES DIRECTLY TO #CONSPIRACY/COLLUSION.

“This goes...very much to the heart of what the [SCO] is investigating.”
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Trending hashtags

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