Thread by @Staedtler

Why is it fine if Boris Johnson wins the leadership? Is that a good thing? What?

Because he is publicly committed to renegotiating the withdrawal agreement.
Which he will fail to do.

May's deal is dead, and Johnson kept voting against it. It would be toxic for him to try and get that through after destroying may's government because of it.

So. If Johnson can't touch May's deal. And Europe refuses to offer a new one, what does he have left?
A referendum or a general election.

He can try and win by empty popularity, I suppose, but there's more to it than that.

Say we have a general election. The Tories are still going to split in two directions. Some to the Brexit Party, and some to the Lib Dems. That's going to cost him seats.

And in Scotland all the remainers are going to go to the SNP, while the Brexit vote splits.

Johnson can beat Corbyn in a lot of seats. But in a lot of seats his main challenge is going to be the SNP or the Lib Dems
As the only two remain parties, they're going to have a clear run in Scotland and England

So I don't think the Tories can win a general election being losing chunks to the SNP and the Lib Dems, as well as Farage's Brexit party to their right.

It's going to be a lot closer than they think