#ABTVtoStopBrexit isn't about affecting the balance of power or forcing a General Election. #ABTV is about sending a message to the Tories, and *especially* to Labour that people don't support *any* #Brexit. Not a #HardBrexit, #SoftBrexit, #NoDealBrexit, #Lexit, or *any* Brexit.
The Tory's control more than half of councils, nearly double Labour. Losing control of even half of them is unrealistic, and even if it happened under fixed term government I can all but guarantee it won't result in a General Election.
A Prime Minister calls a GE under two circumstances:
1) They are miles ahead in the polls and think they can increase their majority (as in 2017)
2) They have suffered a humiliating defeat or scandal.
1) They are miles ahead in the polls and think they can increase their majority (as in 2017)
2) They have suffered a humiliating defeat or scandal.
Theresa May's primary objective is to, above all, keep the Conservative party together, and in power. Given their disastrous performance in GE2017 when they were miles ahead in the polls, a GE certainly won't be called when they are about level with Labour.
There used to be a time when an embarrassing defeat or scandal would prompt a PM to sack ministers and call a GE to re-establish that they have the support of the public. Those more honourable days are long gone.
Scandal after scandal, #Windrush, #Grenfell, #Boris, #CambridgeAnalytica, #UniversalCredit, the list goes on. Lying and even open defiance of Parliament, which once would bring down a government, are now shrugged off and accepted as the norm.
Keeping good of power at any cost is now the name of the game.
Will losing control of some councils result in a General Election? If you think so then Boris has a bridge he can sell you.
Will losing control of some councils result in a General Election? If you think so then Boris has a bridge he can sell you.
In GE2017 Labour was (intentionally) vague about their position on #Brexit. Yes, they respected the result of the referendum. Yes, they would hold the government to account.
Leadership (understandably) wouldn't be drawn on whether this could result in Brexit could be stopped, but assertions to this effect were not contradicted. Remainers were persuaded that their belief that #Brexit be stopped would be respected.
And what happened? After the GE, when the question of what would happen if the Withdrawal Agreement were rejected came up the Labour leadership will not allow the option to Stop Brexit, or even a #FinalSay referendum to be considered - only renegotiation (which is impossible).
The biggest betrayal? Stating that 80% of the electorate voted for parties that support #Brexit. Yes, that includes all the Remainers told that their vote was safe with Labour.
There is a price to pay for betrayal, and it is #ABTV. Many of the people supporting #ABTV really don't want Labour to lose seats or even control of Councils, but they feel they have no choice - it's the only way to pursuade the leadership's to include the option to #StopBrexit
The parties may or may not care about winning or losing the councils themselves, but the fact that UKIP capturing council seats could translate into losing seats in a GE (the Euro-sceptic backbenchers' only ammunition) worried Cameron enough to propose the referendum.
#ABTV serves the same purpose. To let the leadership know that they can't take Remainers votes for granted, that the scaremongering "If you don't vote for us then you're voting for the Tories/Labour" no longer works. That in the next GE, they can't count on our vote.
If the party leadership doesn't like it, then they are welcome to change their position and seriously support a #StopBrexit option - whether in the form of an MP vote and/or #FinalSayForAll #PeoplesVote
Will Theresa May change her position? I think pressure from the ERG Ultra Brexiteers (and the fact that it represents planning for failure) makes that unlikely. Having said that, it does give license to rebelling MPs to justify their votes as addressing the public's concerns.
Will Jeremy Corbyn? I don't know - he obviously doesn't want to, despite the fact that the majority of his MPs and his party are pro-EU. If the argument is that it jeopardises the pro-Brexit voters then... tough.
He has to choose between his Euro-sceptic ideology and the support of Leavers, or his pro-EU MPs and Remainers. He can no longer have his cake and eat it.
The next GE is 4 *years* away. Only the following will prompt an early GE:
- TM getting wind of a coup and calling a GE just to spite her party for stabbing her in the back (unlikely, and *very* unlikely to happen before #Brexit)
- TM getting wind of a coup and calling a GE just to spite her party for stabbing her in the back (unlikely, and *very* unlikely to happen before #Brexit)
- Losing the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement *and* whatever follows that results in #Brexit being cancelled. Just losing the WA is not enough - as long as Brexit remains a possibility, the Tories will not allow a GE.
- A vote of no confidence after March 2019 when Article 50 withdrawal will no longer be an option. I expect at that point passing on the poisoned Brexit chalice will be seen as no bad thing, especially to a party that they can say was complicit in bringing it about.
Fuck all of that. If you want to #StopBrexit then choose an #ABTV for a Pro-Remain independent or party in the local elections next month.
If you want 4 more years of this government, Brexit, nativism and xenophobia, and a ruined economy - vote blindly.
If you want 4 more years of this government, Brexit, nativism and xenophobia, and a ruined economy - vote blindly.
When it all turns to shit, don't go blaming the other side because your side could have done it better. Maybe it could, but it would still be a clusterfuck. There are no winners with #Brexit - as said the Prince: "All are punished"
