Thread by @mariliacout

1/ "Oppo-research" - interesting phrasing, but I'll take it. Although most of my life I analyzed other types of data, I did conduct political analysis in the context of a campaign. There are different types of services and products. Let me tell you what mine consisted of.

2/ Everyday I watched the opponent's TV advertisement. In Brazil, during elections or referendums, there is a period when one hour of TV broadcasting is exclusively for candidates' "message". So I watched and identified the chief arguments.

3/ There were two steps on "oppo-research" and "oppo-deconstruction":
A - fact check all the facts upon which the "oppo" argument is built
B - discourse analysis and logical deconstruction

4/ The counter-discourse ("anti-oppo" part of my client's "message") was made of:
A - hard data (breaking down public statistics into plain language. Lay people are not trained at reading abstract representations such as table and charts and, obviously, not raw data)

5/
B - Logical desconstruction: A = C "quod erat demonstrandum" (as we wanted to demonstrate). Plain language demonstration of logical falacies, not really rocket science.

6/ Now, if someone brings classified information to the client, he is going to use it. Usually, that is very immorally done by leaking the information to the press. If the information is accurate, it's one of the most efficient methods of destroying an enemy.

7/ Ooops... an "oppo". "Dig dirt on him". That was the job I couldn't take. Remember the one I mentioned the other day? "Are you ready to let go off your scruples?" I wasn't. Never will. But yes, it's done. AT A LOCAL LEVEL.

8/ If the information is a result of ESPIONAGE then... "Espionage is the crime of spying on the federal government and/or transferring state secrets on behalf of a foreign country. If the other country is an enemy, espionage may be treason, which involves aiding an enemy"=> CRIME

9/ What I wanted to explain is that while "oppo-research" (the real term is political analysis) may involve some pretty immoral things, they MAY NOT, CANNOT involve the crime of ESPIONAGE.

10/ If it does, there better be a master cover-up plan which, where I come from, involves high level "cleaning house" (kill everyone who knows anything). Sounds like you, Americans, are your lowlives have more in common with the authoritarians in every country than you thought.

11/ Your president didn't need a Coup to take the presidency. And no, it was not just Russian interference (which happened and was huge): he does have a solid, horrific RWA base. So does Bolsonaro and the European fascists.

12/ Trump's declaration today is not that different from the post-electoral threats by Bolsonarists in Brazil: "now you are going to see what we are capable of". And the country did: they break the law left and right and the country is ruled by criminal militias.

13/ As for "oppo research", he doesn't need to hire folks like me or my friends. We are actually useless for him: he needs well constructed lies, conspiracies and ESPIONAGE. Crime, crime and crime. That's not "oppo-research". That's gang territory takeover.

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