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And @Melanie_Hart talking about the Chinese leadership: "They feel that if any small movement were to get started, that trying to crack down against it could be a regime-ending situation." /3 warontherocks.com/2019/04/jaw-ja…
In other words, if they make a wrong move, it could be their last. /4
Reminds me of the situation of crowned heads in Europe the late 18th and 19th century. What kept them awake at night was the horror to end as Louis XVI did -- who was guillotined by angry French revolutionaries in 1792.
That's something liberal democracies should keep in mind when dealing with Russia and China. They should not fall for the "realist" view that all states are equal, and that internal legitimacy doesn't matter for external behaviour. /6
In fact, after reasserting autocratic power internally, both, China and Russia, since a few years are trying to prevent the international order from undermining their autocratic legitimacy at home, project "making the world safe for autocracy". /7
That's why both need to change an international system that has, at the same time, allowed them to re-emerge as great powers, charting their own course. In other words, they are pro-status quo and anti-status quo at the same time, in an odd mix. /8
Constructive engagement with both would mean a) to block and constrain them wherever they undermine key features of the liberal, free and open order, and b) to keep them engaged in cooperation on issues of mutual and general interest. /9
But at the same time, liberal democracies should not put down their guard and misunderstand tactical cooperation as genuine, or as a step towards transformation. And they should keep in mind that moments like 1989 could emerge again, and be prepared to engage. /10
