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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This is promising.

The leading candidate to be next PM thinks on Oct 31 the UK can leave the EU and immediately the two can keep the status quo under "GATT 24".

The leading candidate is in for a shock. A GATT Art 24 deal has to be negotiated first

(See my blog)

#BBCOurNextPM
Johnson said a "standstill" post-Oct31 exit ("GATT24"). How does that work?

1. What stands still? Only tariffs? Non-tariff barriers (EU standards/regs)? ECJ adjudication? Services?
2. Can it be negotiated with the EU? Before Oct31?
3. Will EU agree? No👇🏽

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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
I thought/hoped it would die away, but it's become headline news—the favourite to be UK PM wants to use it …

So here are answers to frequently & rarely asked questions about GATT Art24.

1. General
2. With-deal leavers
3. No-deal leavers
4. Remainers/revokers *SURPRISE*

1 /21 Screenshot. Text of GATT Art24, paragraph 5 (link in later tweet)
1. IN GENERAL

a. DOES GATT COVER SERVICES?

No. GATT only deals with trade in goods.

If you only talk about GATT Art24, you are excluding any agreement in services.

The equivalent is GATS Art 5

wto.org/english/docs_e…

2 /21 Screenshot of GATS Article 5 paragraphs 1 and 4
b. START WITH GATT ART1 (some do, many don’t) — non-discrimination between trading partners.

If UK allows imports duty-free from EU, it must do the same “immediately” for all other WTO members, except …

(“contracting parties” now = WTO members)

3 /21

wto.org/english/docs_e… Screenshot of GATT Article 1 (MFN)
Read 21 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
For heaven's sake John Humphrys @BBCr4today if you're going to ask Mark Carney about GATT Art24 why on earth don't you find out first what it is? It's about free trade agreements in goods. Doesn't apply with no deal.

Thread

Here it is wto.org/english/res_e/…
Here's an explanation tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/16/one…
Read 4 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
The morning after.

Boris Johnson, the current leader in the race to be the next UK Prime Minister, called for a “standstill” in trading relations with the EU to avoid tariffs & quotas if there’s no deal.

#BBCOurNextPM, June 18, 2019.

bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… (From 22’50”)

1/10 Quote: I’ll give you the answer. The answer is that there will be no tariffs and there will be no quotas. Because what we want to do is to get a standstill in our current arrangements, under GATT24 or whatever it happens to be, until such time as we have negotiated the FTA. And it’s in the context of that free trade agreement that we come up with the facilitation … [drowned out]
This raises two sets of questions.

1. Timing — when would this be negotiated with the EU? Before or after October 31?
2. Content — what exactly would be “stood still”?

2/10
1. Timing.

We need to remember that there is already a “standstill” deal on the table. It’s the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, it comes under GATT Art24.

So if a new “standstill” is going to be radically different, how long would it take to negotiate?

3/10
Read 11 tweets

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Brigid Laffan
@BrigidLaffan
Thank you @jillongovt for posting this-must listen. Great to have a focus on the future. Interestingly I disagree with Sir Ivan on his portrayal of the #EU approach to negs- technocratic & run by the theologians & not strategic in summary. @BrigidLaffan
In my view EU had 3 strategic interests to protect in Brexit negs which it has done. 1. Following the portrayal of EU as weak & disintegrating during ref, EU had to assert its centrality in Europe. @BrigidLaffan
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Dr Rob Palmer 🔶
@RobertCPalmer13
LEAVE LIES keep returning to keep the Brexit fantasy alive amongst Britons that are too busy or lazy to fact-check what Brexiteers & MPs say in public & the media.

A lie that won't die is using Art24 GATT in the event of no deal.

As things stand its rubbish

#peoplesvote 1/5
The dangerous fallacy that the UK can leave the EU on 29/3 with no deal & carry on trading as normal for up to 10 years must be ķilled off...

...by us.

It is the foundations of Pro-Brexit protagonist's claims that it is safe for the UK to crash out on WTO tariffs.

2/5
Arch-Brexiteers like Dick Tice claim 'people could carry on pretty much as is' for 10 yrs. Trade experts/lawyers dismiss this as 'utter nonsense' - it is!

Tice's use of 'pretty much' here is endemic of the wholesale disingenuity used by Brexiteers since the ref campaign.

3/5
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BrexitPimpernel #FBPE #Révocateur 🇪🇺 🇫🇷♿️✊
@BrexitPimpernel
The UK parliament looks to have lost its moral backbone.
Power is clung on to like a precious ring, and at any cost.
Bungs are pocketed, impropriety is rife even corruption passes unnoted.
How did it come to this?
bellacaledonia.org.uk/2017/11/05/wha…
We are a Nation that has been consciously divided.
#Leave <Divide and conquer> #Remain
While elites polarize opinion alonge tribal lines they can guarantee support despite misdemeanors that would not pass the scrutiny of a united populace or parliament.
Whatever the final result come 29/03/2019 the division will remain and will be used for political/personal/financial advantage for years to come.
Sadly I don't see how the country will ever be whole again any time in the near future and beyond.
Here is why....
Read 9 tweets
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Camino Mortera
@CaminoMortera
I often agree with @EuroBriefing as I think he & colleagues offer some of the best insights on European politics. But the below is just unthinkable. Were the UK to unilaterally revoke Art.50, I'd bet a case would be put before the ECJ to stop this from happening.
Say UK stays in the #EU under Corbyn with the clear plan of triggering #Article50 a little down the line. What would a good EU lawyer do? She (because, let's face it, it would be a she 😉) would advice the EU institutions to bring the #UK before the #ECJ.
Why? Because, as a member-state, the UK would have breached Article 4 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) which lays down something very boring called the "principle of sincere co-operation" between the EU member-states and the EU itself.
Read 6 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Perdida 🇬🇧🇪🇸🇪🇺
@maria_hoskins
This is gonna be long, but I think it's worth it. A well-regarded twitter poster, let’s call him Giorgio, has recently publish a thread stating among other things as follows. “The pathways to stopping or delaying Brexit are blocked.
But once the mandate is discharged, the pathways to UK rejoining, or being in a close association agreement with EU, within the single market and customs union, will be open, with no obstacles.”
This approach annoys me for two reasons, one because Giorgio seems to be attempting to cajole Remainers to put all activity on hold until we actually leave the #EU.
Read 17 tweets

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