,
11 tweets,
4 min read
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The morning after.
Boris Johnson, the current leader in the race to be the next UK Prime Minister, called for a “standstill” in trading relations with the EU to avoid tariffs & quotas if there’s no deal.
#BBCOurNextPM, June 18, 2019.
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… (From 22’50”)
1/10![Quote: I’ll give you the answer. The answer is that there will be no tariffs and there will be no quotas. Because what we want to do is to get a standstill in our current arrangements, under GATT24 or whatever it happens to be, until such time as we have negotiated the FTA. And it’s in the context of that free trade agreement that we come up with the facilitation … [drowned out]](/images/1px.png)
Boris Johnson, the current leader in the race to be the next UK Prime Minister, called for a “standstill” in trading relations with the EU to avoid tariffs & quotas if there’s no deal.
#BBCOurNextPM, June 18, 2019.
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… (From 22’50”)
1/10
![Quote: I’ll give you the answer. The answer is that there will be no tariffs and there will be no quotas. Because what we want to do is to get a standstill in our current arrangements, under GATT24 or whatever it happens to be, until such time as we have negotiated the FTA. And it’s in the context of that free trade agreement that we come up with the facilitation … [drowned out]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9a3D9EWsAA4JNl.png)
This raises two sets of questions.
1. Timing — when would this be negotiated with the EU? Before or after October 31?
2. Content — what exactly would be “stood still”?
2/10
1. Timing — when would this be negotiated with the EU? Before or after October 31?
2. Content — what exactly would be “stood still”?
2/10
1. Timing.
We need to remember that there is already a “standstill” deal on the table. It’s the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, it comes under GATT Art24.
So if a new “standstill” is going to be radically different, how long would it take to negotiate?
3/10
We need to remember that there is already a “standstill” deal on the table. It’s the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, it comes under GATT Art24.
So if a new “standstill” is going to be radically different, how long would it take to negotiate?
3/10
Is the aim to get this done before Oct 31?
Although EU officials are said to be on stand-by, the EU institutions will be in transition until a new Commission takes over on Nov 1.
So it can be discussed by officials but would there be decision-making authority?
Uncertain.
4/10
Although EU officials are said to be on stand-by, the EU institutions will be in transition until a new Commission takes over on Nov 1.
So it can be discussed by officials but would there be decision-making authority?
Uncertain.
4/10
Is the aim to negotiate this after the UK leaves on Oct 31? (The Art50 process ends; EU legal basis changes too)
Then, how long will it take? What happens in the meantime? Say it takes 3 months to Jan 31 (just a number out of a hat), how is that an “orderly Brexit”?
5/10
Then, how long will it take? What happens in the meantime? Say it takes 3 months to Jan 31 (just a number out of a hat), how is that an “orderly Brexit”?
5/10
Or can we really believe the claim that the EU will “come to its senses” and agree in a matter of days?
That’s a major leap of faith. Nothing we’ve seen so far suggests the EU will do that.
What we do have is the EU trade commissioner saying “no”
6/10
That’s a major leap of faith. Nothing we’ve seen so far suggests the EU will do that.
What we do have is the EU trade commissioner saying “no”
6/10
2. What would the “standstill cover”?
Johnson said tariffs, quotas (ie, tariff quotas)
But:
Non-tariff barriers (standards/reg, mutual recognition)?
Services?
Treating the UK as an EU member in EU free trade deals?
Etc?
Without including them will Brexit be “orderly”?
7/10
Johnson said tariffs, quotas (ie, tariff quotas)
But:
Non-tariff barriers (standards/reg, mutual recognition)?
Services?
Treating the UK as an EU member in EU free trade deals?
Etc?
Without including them will Brexit be “orderly”?
7/10
![Same quote again: I’ll give you the answer. The answer is that there will be no tariffs and there will be no quotas. Because what we want to do is to get a standstill in our current arrangements, under GATT24 or whatever it happens to be, until such time as we have negotiated the FTA. And it’s in the context of that free trade agreement that we come up with the facilitation … [drowned out]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9a47YbW4AAMvW3.png)
And would there be any way of ensuring both the UK and EU comply with this “standstill” deal? British courts? EU courts? International courts? Faith? Trust?
All of this & more is covered in the Withdrawal Agreement/transition (reminder: also a GATT Art24/GATS Art5 deal).
8/10
All of this & more is covered in the Withdrawal Agreement/transition (reminder: also a GATT Art24/GATS Art5 deal).
8/10
Would the EU make any demands in return? Or would it be cowered into submission by the threat of the UK withholding the financial settlement?
A surprising number of people are convinced that it will be the latter.
Where’s the evidence?
9/10
A surprising number of people are convinced that it will be the latter.
Where’s the evidence?
9/10
Johnson/anyone proposing a new “standstill” deal must come clean about its prospects.
What happens if it falls through? If it’s Plan B, what’s Plan C? Can C be activated on Oct 31 to really deliver an “orderly Brexit”.
I suspect there isn’t a C. Happy to be proved wrong
10/10
What happens if it falls through? If it’s Plan B, what’s Plan C? Can C be activated on Oct 31 to really deliver an “orderly Brexit”.
I suspect there isn’t a C. Happy to be proved wrong
10/10
![Same quote again: I’ll give you the answer. The answer is that there will be no tariffs and there will be no quotas. Because what we want to do is to get a standstill in our current arrangements, under GATT24 or whatever it happens to be, until such time as we have negotiated the FTA. And it’s in the context of that free trade agreement that we come up with the facilitation … [drowned out]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9a5qe7WsAUqePR.png)
Update👇🏾
