Thread by @msbellows

The U.S. could just walk away and let the rest of the world deal with Iran to keep oil traffic moving. Japan, whose tanker was attacked, has the FOURTH STRONGEST MILITARY on Earth, ffs. This doesn't have to be our problem. Drunk at the bar has an issue w/ you? Just walk away.
1/

But THAT'S the rub: if we recognize that Iran's beef is with us, coolly walk away, and let our allies deal with Iran, then our allies will negotiate the deal THEY want, which is: end sanctions, return to the nuclear deal, undo Trump's vandalism of Obama's statesmanship.
2/

Trump won't let that happen. So if he goes to war, it won't be over a bombed tanker or a downed drone. It won't be a war against Iran at all, actually. It will be a war against our own allies, shutting down oil production and shipping in defense of Trumpian exceptionalism.
3/

Iran's just the whipping boy. This war is intended to send a message to our own allies. It's a war to establish America's right to ignore treaties and the international community.

So given two bad options (embolden Iran vs follow Trump into war), the choice is clear: no war.
4/4

PS: Yes, 24% of the world's oil is shipped thru the Strait of Hormuz.
But:
•Global demand is low right now
•War would stifle shipments far more than ad hoc attacks
•The US doesn't NEED any of that oil due to its own oversupply. kfor.com/2019/06/13/wha…

ie: NOT our problem