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1. Iran doesn’t want a war. The US—with a few exceptions like Bolton—doesn’t want a war. But many wars have started due to miscalculation. The risks ramp up considerably as both sides try to display strength, save face, and create a credible deterrent. This is a dangerous moment.
2. The First Gulf War started partly because Saddam Hussein miscalculated. He misinterpreted statements made by the president vs. those made by the State Dept. and wrongly judged that the US wouldn’t intervene. And even with good information, miscalculation risk is serious.
3. All of these risks are made worse by Trump’s lies (less credibility); his attacks on allies (a less unified front vs. Iran); his recklessness with words & tweets (which amplify miscalculation risk); and his ignorance of international affairs (could he name 2 cities in Iran?).
4. Trump is also struggling to establish deterrence without creating impunity for certain attacks. If there’s no consequence to attacking unmanned aircraft (which Trump inadvertently signaled), Iran might do it again. If there is a serious consequence, it might spiral toward war.
5. And of course, while imperfect, the Iran nuclear deal was working at stopping enrichment beyond agreed levels and it crucially created a multinational framework to contain Iran. Trump withdrew and we knew there would be consequences. Well, here they are.
