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1. I study authoritarianism—and also how it functions in places that aren’t always in headlines. What many don’t realize is that Trump’s embrace of dictators will likely have a cascading effect. Other autocrats will think: well, if Putin or Kim can get away with it, why not me?
2. Most dictators and despots are driven by a desire to retain power. What can topple them? Well, opposition leaders, dissidents, journalists, and human rights campaigners who try to expose abuses and corruption can destabilize a regime. That’s why dictators kill or jail them.
3. In other words, the rational behavior for a dictator or despot is often to silence critics, rule by fear, and generally be a monstrous tyrant. What has held many back is 1) International norms; and 2) The risk of consequences from foreign powers (almost always in the West).
4. When Trump acts like Putin and Kim and MBS are his best friends, it doesn’t just legitimize those regimes. It also signals to other authoritarians that there will be no consequences. That international norms no longer matter. You can murder journalists. Trump will do nothing.
5. Yes, previous presidents have had relationships with awful regimes in the past. But they didn’t simply uncritically fawn over people like Kim Jong-un. They didn’t give them propaganda victories for nothing. They didn’t treat them better than America’s democratic allies.
6. The Trump effect will take time. It won’t happen overnight. But Trump’s foreign policy will make the world worse and more authoritarian, creating a world in which dictators and despots can commit atrocities and horrifying abuses with less fear of any meaningful consequences.
