, 9 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Your regular reminder of just how much the mortgage market has changed since the financial crisis. Two big changes underpin everything else. First, the slowdown in activity - with the number of new mortgages advanced each month still down 49% on the start of 2007 by 2019
Second, the sharp fall in the cost of borrowing – with average rates on newly advanced mortgages around 60 per cent lower today than they were at the start of 2017
We’ve seen big shifts in the composition of mortgage advances too: big fall in proportion advanced on a single income; big increase in proportion advanced with a ‘high’ loan-to-income ratio (but fewer high-LTI/high-LTV combos); and post-MMR disappearance of non-evidenced loans
Those who are borrowing to buy a home are spending quite a bit less of their income on repayments each month, but they are also taking out longer mortgages on average
And mortgagors in general are much more likely to opt for a fixed interest rate. The proportion of new loans that are fixed has rocketed, plateauing at 92% in recent quarters. The proportion of total outstanding balances that are fixed has continued to rise, reaching 69% today
That trend means the weighted average interest rate paid on outstanding balances (as opposed to new loans) is still falling, despite base rate rises in 2017 and 2018
We've had lower rates despite big increases in spreads. The proportion of balances held 3ppts or more above the base rate has just fallen to 14.4%. That’s the lowest since the 2008-09 base rate reductions, but still well above the figure of just above ½% recorded before that
And the other big (welcome) change – driven by the combination of lower rates, tighter lending criteria and strong employment - is the fall in arrears and repossession to historically low levels
We know that becoming a home owner is harder than it used to be. But for those fortunate enough to get there (thanks to the bank of mum & dad perhaps) or fortunate enough to already be there, it's been a pretty good decade
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