Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #usdcnh
Most recents (8)
#USDCNH dropped ~250pip 6.4100 to 6.3850 yday on prospect of Saudi Arabia SA receiving oil payment from China in #CNY instead of #USD
▪️ Pricing Ccy is different from Invoice/Settlement Ccy - SA can receive CNY but oil may still be priced in $$
1/5
wsj.com/articles/saudi…
▪️ Pricing Ccy is different from Invoice/Settlement Ccy - SA can receive CNY but oil may still be priced in $$
1/5
wsj.com/articles/saudi…
▪️ China oil imports from SA ~$45bn pa, ~1.75 mbpd
▪️ What can SA do with CNY received
1. Pay in CNY for Chinese imports/services
2. Diversify FX Reserves into CNY away from USD
2a. Invest back into China onshore say CGBs
+ve for CNY internationalization
[SAMA FXReserves $420bn]
▪️ What can SA do with CNY received
1. Pay in CNY for Chinese imports/services
2. Diversify FX Reserves into CNY away from USD
2a. Invest back into China onshore say CGBs
+ve for CNY internationalization
[SAMA FXReserves $420bn]
#China: Back In Focus
▪️ Poor credit data: Agg Financing CNY 1190bn vs 2200bn exp=>MLF rate cut possible 15 Mar
▪️ Biggest Covid crisis since Wuhan as cases surge
▪️ China Tech & HK stocks beaten down
▪️ Geopol: U.S. warns China
▪️ #USDCNH jumps to break 1m consolidation
1/6
▪️ Poor credit data: Agg Financing CNY 1190bn vs 2200bn exp=>MLF rate cut possible 15 Mar
▪️ Biggest Covid crisis since Wuhan as cases surge
▪️ China Tech & HK stocks beaten down
▪️ Geopol: U.S. warns China
▪️ #USDCNH jumps to break 1m consolidation
1/6
▪️ China reported 3,300 cases on Saturday - worst outbreak since early days
▪️ 17.5 million residents in Shenzhen placed in lockdown till 20 March
2/6
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
scmp.com/coronavirus/gr…
▪️ 17.5 million residents in Shenzhen placed in lockdown till 20 March
2/6
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
scmp.com/coronavirus/gr…
China Tech & HK stocks beaten down
- SEC: delisting concerns
- Cyberspace Authority of China (CAC): regulatory clampdown
3/6
wsj.com/articles/chine…
scmp.com/tech/policy/ar…
- SEC: delisting concerns
- Cyberspace Authority of China (CAC): regulatory clampdown
3/6
wsj.com/articles/chine…
scmp.com/tech/policy/ar…
#USDINR
Thread..
Pros:
1. Multifold Inflows ~= Outflows (of Tr Def & CA def).
2. RBI appetite for reserves reducing
3. Weak DXY
4. Hand of God levels (73-74)
Cons:
1. Crude 73+
2. Inflation > 6% yet MPC stance accommodative
3. GDP growth 🤞 (8-9% over 2020 which is ~ to 2019)
Thread..
Pros:
1. Multifold Inflows ~= Outflows (of Tr Def & CA def).
2. RBI appetite for reserves reducing
3. Weak DXY
4. Hand of God levels (73-74)
Cons:
1. Crude 73+
2. Inflation > 6% yet MPC stance accommodative
3. GDP growth 🤞 (8-9% over 2020 which is ~ to 2019)
4. Tr def, CA def.
5. Fiscal deficit
6. Rising commodity prices headwind for govt spending
Thoughts:
1. Reserves of over $150 Bn added within 24m
2. Avg cost 72-73
3. Appreciation contained, however one off one time Depn is tolerated
4. inflation counter by keeping ₹ stable?
5. Fiscal deficit
6. Rising commodity prices headwind for govt spending
Thoughts:
1. Reserves of over $150 Bn added within 24m
2. Avg cost 72-73
3. Appreciation contained, however one off one time Depn is tolerated
4. inflation counter by keeping ₹ stable?
5. Are we forming base at 73 for the next band at 75-78 from current band of 73-75 levels if,
Crude > 73
DXY > 92 (taper)
Inflation > 6 (with accom)
Growth < 9%
Fisc > 8%
6. Conversely, 73 is difficult to hold if,
FED shrugs taper
Inflation is transitory
Fisc ~ 7-8
Crude > 73
DXY > 92 (taper)
Inflation > 6 (with accom)
Growth < 9%
Fisc > 8%
6. Conversely, 73 is difficult to hold if,
FED shrugs taper
Inflation is transitory
Fisc ~ 7-8
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.
#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.
#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical #FX Views:
#EURUSD - s/t risk is symmetric after the correction in spot. We remain short via 6M seagull, as per our 2021 top trade.
#EURNOK - We remain short but turn increasingly wary of signs of peak potential.
#EURUSD - s/t risk is symmetric after the correction in spot. We remain short via 6M seagull, as per our 2021 top trade.
#EURNOK - We remain short but turn increasingly wary of signs of peak potential.
Dear all 😀 Hope you have enjoyed the weekend! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates with perspectives on what I see ahead in markets.
The dominoes have been lined up for some major developments in markets. #USDCNH is a clear indication of this. As expected (look back in #HZupdates), this pair is about to go vertical. Next wave up will be explosive ~8.1 as the first major target. Chinese devaluation?
Another indicator is #AUDUSD where the bottom is about to fall out of. This will be a clear starting signal for the coming deflationary phase, which will be tough on a long range of assets. LT target for this pair is ~0.46 #HZupdates
Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Sta diventando stucchevole..tanto 1,6/2/2,5 la sostanza non cambia...se arriva la contrazione economica seria come preambolo di recessione...vi travolge ...senza se e senza ma...
PUPAZZI 👺💩👏
#ITALY'S LEAGUE ECONOMICS ADVISOR SAYS ANY TALK OF THE COUNTRY'S EURO EXIT IS OUT OF DISCUSSION
#ITALY'S LEAGUE ECONOMICS ADVISOR SAYS ANY TALK OF THE COUNTRY'S EURO EXIT IS OUT OF DISCUSSION
