Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #usdcnh

Most recents (8)

#USDCNH dropped ~250pip 6.4100 to 6.3850 yday on prospect of Saudi Arabia SA receiving oil payment from China in #CNY instead of #USD

▪️ Pricing Ccy is different from Invoice/Settlement Ccy - SA can receive CNY but oil may still be priced in $$

▪️ China oil imports from SA ~$45bn pa, ~1.75 mbpd
▪️ What can SA do with CNY received
1. Pay in CNY for Chinese imports/services
2. Diversify FX Reserves into CNY away from USD
2a. Invest back into China onshore say CGBs

+ve for CNY internationalization
[SAMA FXReserves $420bn]
▪️ (Oil in CNY) = (Oil in USD) x (USDCNY FX)
- Oil in CNY=>Shanghai International Energy Exchange, "Shanghai Oil" #SCPA
- Oil in USD=>say DME Dubai Oman Crude Oil #OQD

If Shanghai Oil in CNY is just an FX conversion of Dubai Oil in USD then Oil is still really priced in USD

Read 6 tweets
#China: Back In Focus
▪️ Poor credit data: Agg Financing CNY 1190bn vs 2200bn exp=>MLF rate cut possible 15 Mar
▪️ Biggest Covid crisis since Wuhan as cases surge
▪️ China Tech & HK stocks beaten down
▪️ Geopol: U.S. warns China
▪️ #USDCNH jumps to break 1m consolidation

1/6 ImageImage
▪️ China reported 3,300 cases on Saturday - worst outbreak since early days
▪️ 17.5 million residents in Shenzhen placed in lockdown till 20 March

China Tech & HK stocks beaten down
- SEC: delisting concerns
- Cyberspace Authority of China (CAC): regulatory clampdown

Read 6 tweets

1. Multifold Inflows ~= Outflows (of Tr Def & CA def).
2. RBI appetite for reserves reducing
3. Weak DXY
4. Hand of God levels (73-74)

1. Crude 73+
2. Inflation > 6% yet MPC stance accommodative
3. GDP growth 🤞 (8-9% over 2020 which is ~ to 2019)
4. Tr def, CA def.
5. Fiscal deficit
6. Rising commodity prices headwind for govt spending

1. Reserves of over $150 Bn added within 24m
2. Avg cost 72-73
3. Appreciation contained, however one off one time Depn is tolerated
4. inflation counter by keeping ₹ stable?
5. Are we forming base at 73 for the next band at 75-78 from current band of 73-75 levels if,
Crude > 73
DXY > 92 (taper)
Inflation > 6 (with accom)
Growth < 9%
Fisc > 8%

6. Conversely, 73 is difficult to hold if,

FED shrugs taper
Inflation is transitory
Fisc ~ 7-8
Read 5 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
Danske Bank 2/4: #EURSEK - The krona firmly defied last week's substantial dividend payouts, in line with our expectation. Focus shifts to this week's inflation data. We expect #EURSEK to re-establish the 10.10-10.20 range for now.
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP: We would like to go short $EURGBP again if increases continue. Keep an eye on Northern Ireland riots and Scottish Parliament election on 6 May

#USDJPY - spot starting to be priced as it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot.
Read 4 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical #FX Views:
#EURUSD - s/t risk is symmetric after the correction in spot. We remain short via 6M seagull, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - We remain short but turn increasingly wary of signs of peak potential.
Danske Bank 2/4: Watch broad USD, oil prices, USD real rates and the global reflation theme as indicators for when sentiment could turn.

#EURSEK - remains close to our 1M target of 10.10 as the #Riksbank constitutes a non-event
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP - we remain short $EURGBP but it may take a breather near-term

#USDJPY - $USDJPY took starting to be priced like it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot. Strength of downtrend is fading in line with #USDCNH momentum.
Read 4 tweets
Dear all 😀 Hope you have enjoyed the weekend! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates with perspectives on what I see ahead in markets.
The dominoes have been lined up for some major developments in markets. #USDCNH is a clear indication of this. As expected (look back in #HZupdates), this pair is about to go vertical. Next wave up will be explosive ~8.1 as the first major target. Chinese devaluation?
Another indicator is #AUDUSD where the bottom is about to fall out of. This will be a clear starting signal for the coming deflationary phase, which will be tough on a long range of assets. LT target for this pair is ~0.46 #HZupdates
Read 9 tweets
Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Read 21 tweets
Tria non potrebbe mai lavorare con @POTUS 😂😂😂
#TriaExit #Mef cosa?
Sta diventando stucchevole..tanto 1,6/2/2,5 la sostanza non arriva la contrazione economica seria come preambolo di travolge ...senza se e senza ma...

Read 347 tweets

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