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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
My new @ecipe article - Conservative leadership candidates promise a UK-EU Free Trade Agreement, but the EU is only going to offer preferential access of condition of integration in various areas which no-dealers will reject - so no deal means isolation ecipe.org/blog/isolation…
Unless the UK is prepared to concede on following various EU rules and regulations in a Free Trade Agreement it will not happen. ecipe.org/blog/isolation…
The irony is that in private Conservative MPs want a close economic relationship with the EU. But most dare not speak out in the current political climate. ecipe.org/blog/isolation…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Informative thread on what the Irish Government makes of the Alternative Arrangements Commission. They have problems with it, and proposals don't substitute for a backstop. No surprise.

Ultimately though you need realistic dialogue, and AAC is at least half a step forward
Not surprisingly the one-nation group of Conservatives (joint leader Nicky Morgan) endorse the alternative arrangement proposals (joint chair Nicky Morgan).
To be clear before @GregHands and @Power_Jen complain again about negativitity, the Alternative Arrangements Commission in no way 'solves' the Irish border, but has helpful elements. Treat it as a solution, however, and it will be rejected.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Featuring m'learned colleague @leemakiyama and an interesting example of modern negotiating dynamics - the EU can't brag too much about the Mercosur trade deal because that would look bad in Brazil, Argentina etc... politico.eu/article/mercos…
I know we're only 3 years into the UK as a negotiator but it is quite staggering how badly we're doing when most MPs in our governing party think you get a good deal by threatening to leave and the media hardly challenge them
This exchange earlier in the week of Liam Fox being challenged as to why the UK wasn't just giving the EU an FTA to sign is quite revealing - that MPs can think that's how negotiations work. Fox thankfully has learnt a few things...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
With Canada joining Japan in choosing not to roll over the existing EU trade deal in the event of a no-deal Brexit, let's recap on where we are on trade in no-deal Brexit - TL:DR - not at all a pretty picture 1/ buzzfeed.com/alexspence/can…
There are 24 countries with which the UK has a >£10bn trading relationship (exports plus imports). We currently have preferential deals with 16 (EU plus highlighted). Of these we believe only one (South Korea) will be unchanged in a no-deal Brexit 2/
Switzerland and Norway rollovers are partial as @CoppetainPU has been writing with reference to the first. Turkey can't be rolled over in a no-deal Brexit. And even with South Korea (full text to come) there are stories of some time limited clauses 3/ tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
Read 9 tweets

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Julie Laumann
@Otpor17
In 2012, Tim Cook announced Apple would make a Mac computer in the US.

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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
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on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
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Flick Ruby
@FlickRubicon
What has @wikileaks has taught and shown us about the negotiation of secret #trade​ ​agreements? A thread. Add information you've found to be in the public interest that whistleblowers have trusted to the #WikiLeaks archive. #WikiLeaksIsAPublisher #Assange #SubstanceOverSmea​r
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
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003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
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- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 338 tweets
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

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