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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
SPX can go higher, sure, but comparing 2019 with 2009 must be in the top10 dumbest things I ever saw 🤦🏻‍♂️
1/ sure , SPX can go further up in shallow waves, but to add some perspective where we are in comparison

a) after subprime bubble burst, ISM new orders rebound off <30 bottom vs currently 50 and still falling
2/

b) SPX started rebound after the -50% bear collapse since subprime bubble shock vs currently at ATH
3/
c) FED had cut 8x or 500bp after subprime debacle which started the GFC vs currently 9x hikes or 225bp

that 2019 vs 2009 comparison is so dumb, it’s hilarious. Sure, the price pattern “time frame cropped fitted” looks similar. 🤦🏻‍♂️
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More from @MacroTechnicals see all

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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
monthly Germany ZEW Jul2019 Analysts' surveys vs Markets thread 1/n

• Sentiment drops -3.4 to -24.5 ( weaker than exp, 3rd mth down down, nearly matching Oct18)

• ECB to cut rates and return to QE

• charts vs DAX, Bunds, EUR, ECB coming up

zew.de/en/presse/pres…
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• usually weaker business (ESI/PMI/IFO) and analysts' (ZEW) confidence means less growth rates / companies' profitability = DAX should be weaker YoY basis, but nowadays they all follow SPX which is driven by FED rate cut/China deal hope
3/n Germany ZEW vs Credit Risk

• usually weaker confidence would result or go in tandem with wider credit spreads (benchmark or default swaps) , but nowadays it's FED & ECB put already in place ... smh
Read 6 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum (sorry, delayed) Weekly Recap wk28 as of 12Jul19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• RiskON continues, SPX slowly grinding to new ATH

• previously "exhausted" 10Y govt bonds retraced/profit taking & curve steepening

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2/n wk28 update Global Markets Momentum YTD overview
3/n wk28 update Global Markets overview WoW / MoM / YTD / YoY
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
JPM $48 trillions derivatives book

[ bottom highlighted: explanation of activity, contracts, gross notional ... ]
JPM exposure profile of their derivatives book ...

[ no loud screams ? ]
also interesting: daily market-risk related VaR ...

[ it's not always about trillions of "gross notional" derivatives exposure , because everyone is getting nuts about DBK ]
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
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mcm-ct.com
@mcm_ct
1/
Lets get this, what’ll probably be way more than 80 chart (yes possibly over 100 charts) #mcm_chartstorm going

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@C_Barraud
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Frederic Guarino
@fredericg
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