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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 8 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
As the Tory Leadership election nears its conclusion, and post-Darroch fiasco, I have made a new #BrexitDiagram - series 3, version 7

#Brexit
As ever, high res PNGs and PDFs are on my blog, as is the .ods file used to calculate the probabilities:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Note the .ods file has a new structure for this version, allowing you to change the probabilities per node easily and see the impact
The changes here - in comparison to V6 from a fortnight ago:
General Election - 66% (⬆️ from 61%)
#PeoplesVote - 9% (⬆️ from 4%)
No Deal - 13% (⬇️ from 19%)
Further Art 50 Ext - 6% (⬇️ from 8%)
Exit with Deal - 6% (⬇️ from 8%)
If you think my 60% chance that enough Tory MPs cross the House before Johnson is confirmed as PM is too optimistic, and you reduce that to just 10%, it makes little difference to overall outcome - that puts GE up to 69% and #PeoplesVote down to 5%
Three articles have especially influenced my thinking for this version:

@ConUnit_UCL "Six constitutional questions raised by the election of the new Conservative leader"
constitution-unit.com/2019/06/30/six…
@jonlis1 "Make no mistake: Britain is on the cusp of a constitutional crisis of epic proportions" prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/make-…

@MSmithsonPB "Johnson looks a certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26" www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch…
I'll be presenting this new version at the Freudenstadt Symposium on European Regionalism this weekend.

And - as ever - feedback and critique are very welcome!

/ends
Thanks to an astute observation by @UBFriccardo I was missing an option that Johnson himself would call a People's Vote. That has been added in Version 7.1
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Thanks for discussions at #FreudenBrexit with Patricia Conlan (University of Limerick), @sirgrahamwatson and @StefanMBuettner, I have made a new, partial #BrexitDiagram - dedicated to one thing:

What will happen week commencing 23 July?
That week the Tories announce who wins their leadership (pretty certainly Johnson), and May is due to resign.

But will Johnson be able to command a majority?

Will there be a No Confidence Vote?

And if Johnson doesn't command a majority, what does the Queen do?
Also - as @jonlis1 and others have argued - this is all a question of when the crisis deepens, not if. If it doesn't happen now in July, it will in September.

My chances Johnson sees it through to the summer: 26%
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Hey come on @MagicMagid are you really saying bureaucracy and technicalities and bad behaviour *didn’t* happen in Sheffield? And of it didn’t in the Greens I’m pretty sure it did in other parties! (Sorry for the cynicism)

politico.eu/article/magid-…
And if you want a good haircut from some great Arabic speaking guys, go to Chaussée de Wavre 298 - Coiffure Homme. Just 5 mins from the EP - been going there for years:
goo.gl/maps/yqoKCCDkM…
Also political parties *crush* difference. Whatever that difference is. That’s why so many in Brussels EU politics are jaundiced, have little drive - it’s been crushed out of us because you get on by conforming. In any politics sadly it seems.
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Reading the excellent @ConUnit_UCL blog post on what happens after new Tory leader is appointed:
constitution-unit.com/2019/06/30/six…

And then trying to put that into my latest #BrexitDiagram...
Imagine the following happens:
1) Johnson chosen 23 July
2) 3 Tory MPs cross House, Tory+DUP has no majority any more
3) Queen cannot appoint Johnson as a result, 2 weeks to find a solution
Two routes from this are pretty obvious:
1) Johnson softens his Brexit position, and tries to win confidence back
2) No solution found so UK heads for General Election
Read 5 tweets

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Karol Cummins
@karolcummins
‼️Boris Johnson is Britain's Donald Trump

– Complete with Breitbart's Bannon and Russia Cover-Up

BORIS JOHNSON
MAIN MEGA THREAD

#Brexit #VoteLeave #BorisJohnson

H/T @paulhanley12
bylinetimes.com/2019/06/12/bor…
Boris Johnson is/was advised by Steve BANNON – Trump’s campaign manager & VP of the notorious, now-shuttered electioneering firm Cambridge Analytica, which he co-founded in 2014 w/ hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer, who also backed the Breitbart sites.
bylinetimes.com/2019/06/12/bor…
📌Johnson and Bannon became friends when Johnson was still Foreign Secretary and Bannon was still in the White House in early 2017.

📌They have been in contact ever since and the fruits of this friendship have been evident for some time

bylinetimes.com/2019/06/12/bor…
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Is there middle path through the #Brexit impasse? It doesn't feel like it, but after a few days in Brussels I've sketched one out - before you burst out laughing, bear with me 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
So as things stand, the positions are clear. @MichelBarnier says the Withdrawal Agreement is the "only option" and the EU member states concur.

nybooks.com/daily/2019/05/…

Am told at EUCO dinner this week this was repeated: "not a dot or comma will change", per UK source. /2
@MichelBarnier And given that even softer Tory leadership candidates like @Jeremy_Hunt says that the Withdrawal Agreement must be renegotiated, it would seem that any new PM is on a collision course with the EU. /3
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
In latest #Brexit note I’m told “The person who might defeat Boris is Boris.” So what do we think is next for #Brexit? Short thread on our revised basecase - which will evolve - post May & Euro elections
Results of Euro elections will have significant impact on both Tories & Labour. But in short term, the most dramatic impact will be felt in the Tory leadership race 1/
1) @Nigel_Farage triumph is good news for @BorisJohnson, who is the man to beat, the agenda-setter and early front-runner & our basecase for PM (If not, then we think @DominicRaab, followed by @michaelgove then @Jeremy_Hunt) 2/
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
No 10 source: process to elect new leader would begin after leaving EU [NB that would be May 22 if MV passed]
No 10 source: Timetable to elect new leader in hand of others - PM will stay during process.

This is about new leadership for phase 2.
Seems to me that PM is making it conditional on having to get through phase 1 that her general message it is
price she is prepared to pay and that the message of her team is that “this is national interest above personal interest”
Read 31 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) 6 pointless, time wasting exercises the Tory & Labour parties want to put the country through before we can start work on #Brexit

There are only 2 options left, May’s deal or Remain. There’s no majority for no deal and no time or appetite for a new negotiation
#PeoplesVote
2) There is only 3 months left and the country is in a state of worry. Despite this, and despite the ticking clock the 2 major parties are insisting on self indulgent frippery and posturing before we can get to the real business of fixing #Brexit
3) Lets take the Tory party. Firstly, they’re about to engage in another Leadership contest. May will probably win this but even if she doesn’t it will consume weeks of time for no purpose because it won’t itself change anything in Brexit. The same issues will exist afterwards
Read 14 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) who are the stupid #Brexit people John?
A regular device from brexiters is to say that #PeoplesVote supporters think Leave voters were stupid

It's true that there were very many incredibly, boneshakingly dense Brexiters, but they were leading, not following

Some examples
2) Melanie Philips is a regular pro #Brexit columnist, arguing for a tough line on the EU.

This is her finding out *only last night* that we represent 10% of the EUs total exports compared to 45% of ours going to the EU

Her confused look is remarkable

3) David Davis, Brexit secretary and former EU minister, believed *even after the referendum* that we could strike illegal individual deals with Germany, France etc, something utterly forbidden under EU law

This was the basis of his Leave position
Read 17 tweets

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