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Thanks for discussions at #FreudenBrexit with Patricia Conlan (University of Limerick), @sirgrahamwatson and @StefanMBuettner, I have made a new, partial #BrexitDiagram - dedicated to one thing:
What will happen week commencing 23 July?
What will happen week commencing 23 July?
That week the Tories announce who wins their leadership (pretty certainly Johnson), and May is due to resign.
But will Johnson be able to command a majority?
Will there be a No Confidence Vote?
And if Johnson doesn't command a majority, what does the Queen do?
But will Johnson be able to command a majority?
Will there be a No Confidence Vote?
And if Johnson doesn't command a majority, what does the Queen do?
Also - as @jonlis1 and others have argued - this is all a question of when the crisis deepens, not if. If it doesn't happen now in July, it will in September.
My chances Johnson sees it through to the summer: 26%
My chances Johnson sees it through to the summer: 26%
Hold on tight between now and the end of the month.
You thought Brexit was already messy?
You ain't seen nothing yet!
/ends
You thought Brexit was already messy?
You ain't seen nothing yet!
/ends
