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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Thread on the Commons and a no-deal Brexit. Worth adding that a new PM will want to have a legislative agenda, so ideally not hide from Parliament, and that the EU are well aware of all of this hence why no deal threats have so little credence
As ever we return to the need for a PM to build a consensus around a realistic Brexit position in Parliament, with current set of MPs that will not be for no-deal, and the EU will not drop the backstop.

That's the challenge, the rest is noise
This on the other hand is how to miss the point of UK-EU negotiations in a spectacular way by assuming we have all the leverage and power.
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Later this morning the Alternative Arrangements Commission will present their final report and we will see how they responded to criticism of the interim report e.g. below. There's a fundamental distrust problem though which we need to discuss... 1/ britishirishchamber.com/brexit-views-5…
Essentially the #AACommission exists because of the largely unstated view among Brexiteers that the UK Government and / or the EU failed to find obvious solutions to Brexit and the Northern Ireland border because of malice, deviousness, or incompetence. We can do this better 2/
The core technical team working on alternative arrangements were the same group that had been putting out various ERG-sponsored reports for 3 years to say the problem can be solved. These have been consistently criticised and rejected 3/
Read 13 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
It is important to see a no-deal Brexit not as some conspiracy, but potentially the logical conclusion of UK politicians refusing to admit that not everything promised in a referendum was deliverable and compromises would be needed. Which in turn is a terrible future platform
We see the same refusal to confront reality repeated in discussion about a future US trade deal - "they'll have to adopt our food standards" - or most pertinently @BorderIrish - of course we can have no infrastructure even when every other border outside the EU has it
My reply to this sparked many replies agreeing or disagreeing, but you have to remember the context of 2017- the EU having to try to introduce the UK to negotiating reality. If we leave with no-deal that task will pass to the US. They won't be gentle
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Rather than learning from the failures of the Theresa May's Brexit negotiation it seems that both candidates are intent on repeating them, only this time shouting rather than talking, as the joke about the English abroad goes.

Let's explain again (thread) all of those mistakes
Mistake 1 - setting no clear realistic outcome

We can all set our negotiating strategy as wanting everything we want, and nothing the other side wants. It doesn't work. And when the other side says no, and you don't have the granular detail of what you want, even less well 2/
Even outside the issues of the Irish backstop, the leadership candidates do not seem to know what relationship they want with the EU in the future beyond no-tariffs. Modern trade is complicated, what of services, regulations etc? 3/
Read 18 tweets

Related threads

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
No 10 source: process to elect new leader would begin after leaving EU [NB that would be May 22 if MV passed]
No 10 source: Timetable to elect new leader in hand of others - PM will stay during process.

This is about new leadership for phase 2.
Seems to me that PM is making it conditional on having to get through phase 1 that her general message it is
price she is prepared to pay and that the message of her team is that “this is national interest above personal interest”
Read 31 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
PM will soon address EU leaders at Brussels summit. She normally speaks for approx 15 mins. EU leaders can then ask her questions but they won't all sit and 'negotiate' together. After questions, Theresa May will leave the room so the 27 leaders can debate amongst themselves /1
EU leaders reject narrative that there's only 2 options now: Theresa May's deal or a no deal #Brexit . They will also debate option of a longer extension if the deal is rejected again by parliament next week /2
EU sees no 'ideal' solution here. They don't like idea of a long extension or rolling short extensions with permanent threat of a no deal #Brexit round the corner ("We've had enough drama" one EU diplomat told me) BUT leaders will want to avoid a no deal Brexit if they can /3
Read 4 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
Read 16 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
In an effort to show why it is hard to explain what's happening #Brexit wise in UK at the moment, I made some slightly whimsical opening remarks to the @IIEA #CountdowntoBrexit event today.

They are the ‘Illogical Truths’ of Brexit.
(to be taken with a dash of salt 🧂)
1/6
1. The UK has not yet come to terms with leaving the EU.

It hasn't got to grips with nature of the other side (despite being there 40+yrs).
Nor with the process (e.g. future negos still to come).
& it hasn't come to terms with consequences of leaving (e.g. border controls).
2/6
2. The #backstop per se is not The Problem, but the sheer fact that it is a compromise.

And a compromise is inevitable.
Plus backstop is rarely discussed in light of NI/IRL needs but in terms of what it means for future UK-EU rel'ship - which it is not intended to determine.
3/6
Read 6 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
SO. #Brexit boils down to how - or if - the UK can ever leave the dreaded Irish backstop.

There is talk of a "review mechanism". So what might that be? How might it work?

Some thoughts after chats with both sides + experts 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Let's start from the point of agreement.

Both sides say backstop is
a) necessary
b) temporary
c) should be superseded by future relationship

So there does need to be what one EU source calls an "unwinding" mechanism. /2
The problem (before we get to the detail of that mechanism) is that no-one can see what version of the Future Relationship can deliver on UK commitment to no return to a hard border in Ireland.

May's dual tariff or 'MaxFac' unicorns are dead. /3
Read 17 tweets

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