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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
At what point is the market going to realise that the Spanish banks aren't going to make it? Here is Sabadell... new all time lows...
And here is Bankia - pretty much at new all time lows...
and here is BBVA... about the fall off the cliff of death.
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
If you haven't watched @smacca3000 incredible piece on the Japanese banking sector, you are missing out. Really fascinating and was entirely new to me...

Prepare for a Japanese Banking Meltdown? | Real Vision realvision.com/tv/shows/inter…
@smacca3000 I just rewatched it. For me it was the hidden gem of the entire 2 weeks of Recession Watch programming. My jaw literally hit the floor watching it and a very big penny dropped. Japan. It is not on anyones radar. It has to be. The banks are in deep trouble.
Here is the zoomed in version... remember, this is the world's largest private sector creditor nations' banking system we are talking about and the the most indebted sovereign.
Read 3 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
L'et just catch up on the EU data as there is some pushback that the PMI is only manufacturing and therefore Europe is fine. I reject that hypothesis as the base case because of the following simple data sets:
Germany, the largest EU nation, is almost at zero GDP growth and the ZEW suggests its going to go negative to -2%
Italy, the second largest nation, is already at zero and the LEI is pointing towards a significant contraction...
Read 8 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Big, important thread alert:

There is a lot going on in Europe that feels like it's coming to a head soon... probably by the end of the summer. The EU economy is in mild recession...
But it is unlikely to deteriorate further for a month or two until the CESI up-cycle finishes around the end of the summer
But inflation expectation are collapsing (5yr shown) and show no signs of abating..
Read 22 tweets

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Jeff McFadden
@homemadeguitars
Poor Hay, a farm story.
The last hay I baled was poor hay. It had been rained on, twice, once hard and once not so much.
When hay gets rained on in the windrow it has to be opened up to the sun to dry, or it will heat and spoil in a composting process.
2. A "windrow", for new readers, is a cut grass raked up into a long pile, extending the length of the field. This process opens up the cut grass to breeze for drying but protects it from excess sun, which bleaches out nutrients.
Windrowing also consolidates the hay for pickup.
3. Rain leaches nutrients out of cut grass. It is always preferable to cut hay, allow it to dry and cure, and pick it up by whatever process one uses, between rains.
You probably know the old saying, Make hay while the sun shines. They weren't kidding.
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Nick Wallis
@nickwallis
Today is the 22nd and final day of the Horizon trial, second trial of the Bates v Post Office group litigation at the High Court. Anthony de Garr Robinson QC (left) for the Post Office arriving this morning. He will be making the PO's closing submissions for five hours today.
I'll be tweeting from Court 26 from 10.30am and posting up sections of the Post Office's written closing (if I get it) as the day progresses. Follow this thread for all the "action". A write-up of yesterday's closing submissions for the claimants is here: postofficetrial.com/2019/07/horizo…
There are lots of interested observers in court today - @Karlfl from @ComputerWeekly (who wrote this yesterday) computerweekly.com/news/252466111…
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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE #FBIR 🔶
@fascinatorfun
Here are SOME outcomes from Best for Britain’s Poll.

The full data have not been made available yet.

But there is a calculator, inserting your postcode and a tool to play with changes of %. Even 1-2% variation can +1 remain seat
bestforbritain.org/vote
In the NE. This is the projected vote share result.

Next tweet is what could occur with a bit of a push for LD and LP.

The real question is WHERE would the seats come from to get that second seat, whether LP or LD?
Slightly frustratingly the tool got stuck when I sptried to shift % share votes around between LD and Labour leaving BXP the same.

Variation 1 was where the LP vote share 🔽 to 22% (stuck on 21%) & LD 🔼 19%.

1 seat BXP, 1 seat LP, 1 Seat LD
Read 9 tweets
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Laina SnowTime
@lainasparetime
Are you all ready to do something fun? We are going to be talking about an Anne of Green Gables adaptation today. #LainaWatchesAnne

The 1934 Anne of Green Gables by RKO Radio Pictures!
#LainaWatchesAnne Yeah, I bet most of you weren't expecting THAT, huh?

(Except @AnomriaReid. You get a pretend cookie.)
#LainaWatchesAnne But first some history.

The first Anne of Green Gables adaptation was a silent black and white film starring Mary Miles Minter who honestly seems like she was a super interesting person. Her wikipedia page was really neat to read.
Read 71 tweets
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Eric Wall
@ercwl
Going to think loudly while I read David Chaum's @elixxir_io technical brief. Chaum is pretty much the forefather anonymous communication and is about as respected as you can be in this space. Now he's built a privacy PoS coin. I'll look silly criticizing this but, here I go.
Starting with a cheap shot: the fact that they got the < > signs mixed up when describing their tps made me giggle.
Next thing I'm coming up with is that they seem to think that one of the scaling bottlenecks of conventional blockchains like Bitcoin is the amount of time it takes to *produce* a block. That's kind of... not the problem at all. The bottleneck is on users validating the blocks.
Read 25 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming
PA redraw creates map that is almost entirely drawn from scratch. Huge shifts from 2016 plan all over the place. Dems favored to win 9 seats there in almost any national environment.
(big swings mostly from renumbering, but aggregate differences are clear)
Read 11 tweets

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