Spoiler alert: substance of what @JunckerEU said last night in Sky interview was NOT new (will explain below). Irish backstop remains main sticking point in renegotiations. EU, UK positions remain far apart ALTHOUGH EU keen to avoid another Brexit extension find a deal asap /1
1)Juncker said we want a deal: we know that
2)Juncker said EU is ready to replace the backstop: He said this on Weds at the European parliament. The EU has said this to Boris Johnson since he became PM. The Withdrawal Agreement itself has provisions for replacing the backstop /2
2)Juncker said EU is ready to replace the backstop: He said this on Weds at the European parliament. The EU has said this to Boris Johnson since he became PM. The Withdrawal Agreement itself has provisions for replacing the backstop /2
3) Juncker said a deal is possible by 31 Oct: EU has said that before too with the qualification that UK must come up with “realistic, legally operable solutions on how to replace the backstop”. EU doesnt view UK current position ticking that box /3
4) @JunckerEU said UK governments ideas are “basis” for agreement on the backstop but that –and this is key-“the replacement must be as robust as the current backstop”. EU encouraged by no10's proposal of NI aligning with EU regulations on agrifoods but what about the rest? /4
The 3 UK "non-papers" (ie informal documents) handed to EU on all-Ireland agrizone, customs and manufacturing described to me as upsum of last 2 weeks of talks with UK envoy to EU David Frost. Described to me in EU as 'more piecemeal + aspirational than concrete + realistic' /5
Main goals of backstop for EU: Protect NIreland peace process+ protect single market. On @BBCr4today Deputy Irish PM Coveney said UK suggestion to have customs checks away from border still interrupts all-Ireland economy and North-South co-o protected in Good Friday Agreement /6
Frustration in EU too at Brexit Secretary Barclay suggestion yesterday (remember the Malthouse Compromise floated during Theresa May’s time and rejected by the EU?) that a Brexit deal minus backstop be signed now and backstop replacement sorted out after, during transition /7
To EU this is Johnson government saying “trust us” . My EU sources don’t trust. There’s a fear if backstop replacement discussed AFTER Brexit, the UK would use N Ireland as bargaining chip in future trade negotiations (to cherry pick access to single market etc) /8
UK papers also don’t adequately protect single market in EU eyes. All-Ireland agrizone = 30% of trade only (though most trade volume) +there’s no talk of governance: ECJ or UK law? Level playing field? EU thinks current proposals could give unfair competitive advantage to UK /9
Big difference (again) in EU/UK approach. EU based on rules and principles within which there’s wiggle room. Uk wants to start from scratch bottom up. One EU diplomat “There’s a huge difference between working 5mm within the perimeter fence and 5mm on the outside” /10
CONCLUSION: EU keen to find a deal. No one wants another leading-nowhere Brexit extension if possible. EU sources say they’re ready to look again at (ie find compromise on) current backstop but don’t accept binning it unless more watertight UK alternative on table than now /11
