Thread by @jl_owen

No deal is not an end point and will preoccupy government for years.

Our new @instituteforgov paper looks at what needs to happen before October 31 and what will follow if the UK leaves without a deal.

The biggest questions will still need to be settled. The difficult choices - unresolved for the last three years - will not evaporate overnight on the 31 October.

And Brexit will remain the key dividing line in a Parliament in which Govt has a wafer-thin majority.

Prior to October 31 the biggest headache for Michael Gove in his new role as 'Mr No Deal' will be Northern Ireland.

To start - there is not a credible plan for managing the border in no deal. Not met anyone who thinks there is.

Second he will need legislation to reintroduce direct rule unless exec restored

Having Westminster roll back parts of devolution (when the border is already hardening) is extremely contentious. But without it, the most exposed part of the UK would be left unable to respond.

And this new £100m ad campaign will be vital. Because as it stands there's a very real risk that the UK will be LESS ready in October than it was in March.

But immediately after the 31 October, if the Government can dodge Parliament and cross the finish line for 'no deal'...

It will find it wasn't the finish line but the starting gate.

With huge challenges remaining.

And it will last for a long time. Whitehall will be dominated by Brexit

Thousands of officials, pulled off their day jobs to help the UK adapt.

The Chancellor could find he's spending money on propping up failing businesses - who've not adapted yet - rather than domestic agenda

So no deal is not an end state. It's not the point after which the Government can go back to focusing on housing and broadband and schools.

It marks the beginning of an extremely tough few years and months - where Parliamentary battles continue.

You can read our (@ThimontJack @jillongovt ) report here:

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/p…