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Joe Owen
@jl_owen
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Worth making the point today that relatively arbitrary dates have not been the UK's friend in the Brexit process.

To start, A50 trigger in Mar 17 was created for Tory conference speech in Oct 16 - meant UK started clock without plan
Then the desire to get 'sufficient progress' in December 2017 meant there was a last minute scramble to agree words on Irish Border.

Supposedly Davis, Johnson and co didn't full understand what they had agreed (🤔)

But they've been critical driver of what followed
Then UK pushing extremely hard for deal at special summit in November 2018, to give them time to ratify...

But losing key cabinet ministers and adding to the big stand off with backbenchers...
Clearly deadlines are helpful tools, but have also caused big problems.

Something UK needs to address for next phase and (helpfully) something forthcoming @instituteforgov report will touch on.
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More from @jl_owen see all

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Joe Owen
@jl_owen
Today we @instituteforgov publish our latest report..

We argue that the Home Office is not ready or able to manage immigration policy after Brexit.

The report looks at the brexit challenge and the problems that have plagued the immigration system.
The report looks at why the immigration system is seemingly lurching from crisis.

A few examples:

Ministers don’t know what they are trying to achieve. They can agree high level political rhetoric. But have failed to outline realistic objectives - for almost a decade
The Home Office set up means ministers literally act as a caseworker.

If a case looks sensitive - it’s goes across the politicians desks.

That doesn’t happen in the benefits system. It doesn’t happen in the tax system. And for good reason.
Read 11 tweets
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Joe Owen
@jl_owen
You may have seen it, but the PAC hearing on border readiness is… so bleak.

It's clear a huge amount of work has happened over last 2 years. But also that we are woefully prepared for no deal...

A large part of that is massive failings of politicians to make decisions... 1/
In short:

- 40% of traders have no plans to prepare for no deal
- The EU fully intends to implement checks, but we don’t quite know how
- HMRC have basically just got crossed fingers on tariff policy
- Government is relying on businesses to tell them what MS are doing
On trader readiness - one of HMRCs biggest risks - the numbers with just a few weeks to go are pretty stark

1 in 5 of the target businesses have registered for the necessary EORI number (HMRC proxy for readiness)
40% have said told HMRC are saying they have no plans to prepare.
Read 10 tweets
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Joe Owen
@jl_owen
Well doesn't this just look like a total nightmare waiting to happen...
It's impossible for the Home Office to meaningfully end free movement in a no deal scenario.

a) They need to have registered EU citizens already in UK before they can enforce new regime

b) they don't have a new system up and running.

So here we have the Whitehall workaround...
Clearly decided temporary continuation of free movement as now was a non-starter - politically difficult for immigration to continue unchanged but Spanish satsumas get stuck at the border.
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Wondering if EU leaders might go for longer extension with reviewal dates linked to their already-scheduled summits: late June, mid-Dec and late March. That way Macron gets to impose “tougher” conditions BUT /1
Essentially EU will blink: EU leaders had made granting further #Brexit extension contingent on PM presenting concrete plan on how to proceed. France still insisting but no-one believes that’s what they’ll get from Theresa May today. They’ll likely grant extension anyway /2
Nothing can be taken for granted though. Especially on length of extension and conditions attached. Leaders decision will be influenced today by PM’s presentation at start of summit and their Q&A session with her afterwards. She then leaves room while they debate response /3
Read 7 tweets
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David Carretta
@davcarretta
#Brexit: ricapitoliamo.

1) La Camera dei Comuni incarica Theresa May di rinegoziare il backstop per evitare il ritorno della frontiera fisica tra Irlanda e Irlanda Nord.

Cioè quello che May ha cercato di fare a dicembre e inizio gennaio ottenendo una lettera Ue di chiarimenti
#Brexit: ricapitoliamo

2) L’Ue risponde subito: no.

Come già detto a dicembre l’accordo di ritiro, backstop incluso, non si può rinegoziare.
#Brexit: ricapitoliamo

3) La Camera dei Comuni dice “no” all’uscita senza accordo, ma boccia gli emendamenti per rinviare la Brexit.
Read 16 tweets
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
Today’s bit of trade wisdom is on the importance of imports. Because the longstanding talking point of “they sell more to us than we to them” is still around and - wherever you stand on #Brexit - it has to go. Short thread. @CharlieElphicke
@CharlieElphicke Point 1: imports are necessary for industry. Why is that? We live in the age of global value chains. What does that mean? Products are made from parts that come from all over. SMMTP’s latest statistics say only 44% of the stuff British cars are made of is actually from the UK.
@CharlieElphicke If you eliminate the imports, you have to replace them. Some can be replaced at higher costs, others might not. You put the industry at risk. At worst: you kill it.
Read 8 tweets
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Brexitshambles
@brexit_sham
#Tory conference on the horizon & the 'no deal' #Brexit vultures circle the carcass. All the usual suspects incl' Littlewood, Singham and @SteveBakerHW for the IEA. @isaby, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, @DanielJHannan, @patel4witham, @andreajenkyns for @matthew_elliott's BrexitCentral......
Thick as thieves...... Hannan and Singham again, Bromund of 'Anglo-American Relations,' Steifel of the Cato Institute, for the Heritage Foundation. The IEA again, this time with Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds of the #DUP.
Flies on a turd..... Elliott's infamous 'Tax Payers' Alliance,' with Priti Patel again, and, of course @LowTaxChloe. The Bruges Group, with Patel (again), Jenkyns (again) and @OwenPaterson.....
Read 4 tweets
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Camino Mortera
@CaminoMortera
Today, @CER_EU publishes my piece on #Brexit and #JHA. I have been looking at this for 1,5 years so I hope I did not make too many mistakes (links to piece - cer.eu/publications/a… and opens thread)
At the outset of the #Brexit process, most people assumed that a deal on #police and #judicial co-operation was easier to get than one on #trade. Time has shown this is not the case. Ongoing co-op on #JHA is one of the few items yet to be agreed on #withdrawal deal. Why?
Well, because the #EU and #UK's opening positions in the #negotiation are incompatible: Britain wants a #bespoke agreement with the EU, a la #Schengen, but is not willing to accept #ECJ or #EUCharter. EU wants to replicate existing models. What to do?
Read 10 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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