,
8 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
A good review of how Trump's tariffs have been a clear economic loser. It's odd, however, that after citing these facts, the conclusion is "the intellectual dominance of free trade in the U.S. is over." Not saying that's wrong; just odd, given the aforementioned facts /1
I'd also add, however, that - so far - the tariffs have also been a geopolitical loser . Ineffective in most cases, actually counterproductive in others, and eroding decades of US international goodwill in the process (not to mention important alliances and institutions) /2
Countries are actively working to sign/implement FTAs w/out the US. The WTO - a pillar of global security - is on life-support (much due to Trump). Chinese nationalism/anti-Americanism is ascendant, & their ldrs now have a handy scapegoat for the failures of state capitalism /3
Meanwhile, Trump's "trade deals" are non-existent (EU, China) or simply incomplete recreations of TPP (USMCA, maybe Japan), minus of course important countries like Vietnam & Malaysia.
And, despite promises, there are no new FTAs in sight. (Recall the India tease? lol) /4
And, despite promises, there are no new FTAs in sight. (Recall the India tease? lol) /4
(This is, I should note, precisely what history/theory shows re attempts to use coercive unilateralism to achieve changes in foreign country behavior - especially compared to multilateral (WTO) alternatives. See, eg, aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…) /5
Maybe this all changes, but RIGHT NOW it's a clear geopolitical failure - UNLESS you see crippling the global economy & WTO, isolating the USA, & maybe creating a massive, "decoupled" geopolitical enemy (not rival) as a success.
And in that case... congrats I guess? /6
And in that case... congrats I guess? /6
So Trump's tariffs have failed on the economics; they've failed - so far - on the geopolitics; and, of course, they've produced plenty of political dysfunction along the way.
Yet NOW "the intellectual dominance of free trade in the U.S. is over"?
That's telling, isn't it? /X
Yet NOW "the intellectual dominance of free trade in the U.S. is over"?
That's telling, isn't it? /X
p.s. (and FWIW)
