Thread by @Peters_Glen

Will Chinese CO₂ emissions peak before the pledged 2030?

Quite possibly, according to a new study, but "other estimation techniques could give different results. You need to look at many such analyses & triangulate.” says @jikorsbakken

THREAD 1/

carbonbrief.org/chinas-emissio…

Chinese emissions looked to have peaked in 2013, but that looks highly unlikely with growth now returning at 1-2%/yr.

The ups & downs are driven by coal, often related to credit availability (infrastructure), with oil & gas growing handsomely...

2/

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-chi…

A new study looks at the characteristics & growth of 50 Chinese cities, arguing they exhibit an Environmental Kuznet's Curve (peak in CO₂/capita vs GDP/capita), & project CO₂ emissions for all of China assuming an EKC & find a peak in 2021-2025.

3/

rdcu.be/bMGo4

Sounds plausible & many argue for a peak 2020-2025.

But "At some point, you run out of places to move heavy industry & power plants" @jikorsbakken, implying not all of China can follow the same EKC structure as some cities.

4/

carbonbrief.org/chinas-emissio…

As an aside, there is a significant literature on EKCs.

Summary: Many studies show an EKC for local pollutants (SO₂), but for energy & global pollutants (CO₂) the case is more complex.

Having said that, if we keep <2°C, all countries will exhibit an EKC for CO₂...

5/

China has pledged to reduce CO₂ intensity 60-65% by 2030 (relative to 2005). CO₂ emissions will peak when GDP drops below the reductions in CO₂ intensity, that is expected as Chinese GDP growth slows.

Is a peak before 2030 business as usual?

6/

cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…

Which comes back to GDP as a key factor for a CO₂ emissions peak

"[t]he Chinese economy is driven by credit & credit availability, ... determined by the central government ... the Chinese economy was going to slow down with or without a trade war".

7/

bbc.com/news/business-…

That is, Chinese CO₂ emissions might have peaked anyway.

In any case, while a peak is important, far more important is reducing emissions after the peak, which is far, far harder... 2°C pathways follow the grey area...

cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…

8/

It is worth noting, the study suggests a peak of "13–16 GtCO₂/yr between 2021 & 2025". That is over ~20% over today's level, which in itself is quite extreme growth... I would expect very low growth leading to a plateau & decline (like the US or EU).

9/

Disclosure.

We (@gcarbonproject) tried to publish a study using a similar approach a few years back, but constantly rejected... Reviewers were not convinced of the statistics!

Figure shows CO₂ emissions per capita as a function of time (by province).

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