Thread by @jonworth

I’m in Montenegro. Out of 🇪🇺 so roaming costs a fortune, so mobile internet has been off.

But logging in I see there’s a load of rubbish about No Deal.

I don’t doubt Johnson’s willing to try to do it. But the ball is then in the Commons’ court to stop it.

They could No Confidence (VONC) the government. If no government regains confidence in 2 weeks there’ll be a General Election.

But this notion that that means a No Deal by default if GE is after 31 Oct is rubbish.

This 2 weeks to regain confidence system has never been used. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act that sets up the system dates from 2011.

The crucial point: absent a functioning government, the Commons will set its own agenda those weeks.

That will mean a Cooper-Boles system to pass a 1 clause law mandating the Prime Minister to ask for a Article 50 extension until the end of the year so an election can be held without crashing out.

There is *no way* the Commons is going to allow an election and then just crash out by default before the election is held.

Johnson also can’t easily just call an election (without a VONC), also because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

To call an early election needs a 2/3 majority. Are you going to get that w/o binding Johnson to ask to extend Article 50? No way.

The basics of this are unchanged.

If MPs want to stop No Deal they most probably can

A General Election is still likely, but one with UK crashing out mid-campaign is v unlikely

EU might well have to extend Article 50 again

/ends