,
6 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
.@BorisJohnson team will be VERY happy about briefings out of Bxl last night - their hard nosed approach & willingness to contemplate no-deal is exactly message they wanted to socialise across EU. More on EU angle later; latest #Brexit piece below based on chats with all sides 1/ 
Obvs revised deal looks much less likely than power struggle between Johnson & Commons over no-deal. But despite @DavidGHFrost tough message to Bxl (UK won't engage until EU abolishes backstop) still think there's some give - eg PM would engage if EU offered to reopen WA 2/
BUT growing number of Boris' allies don't share his optimism (rightly) that EU will blink. Also fair to say that growing expectation among ministers is that he will not do so unless EU blinks first. So election (our basecase) odds rising. Key question is WHEN 3/
Our bullets above make clear debate inside @10DowningStreet - & how last Thursday’s Brecon by-election will likely tip balance in that debate. So Boris won't seek election, but Commons could of course force one. Cummings briefings should be read in that light - propaganda war 4/
As I tweeted yesterday, still way too early to write off MPs’ chances of blocking no-deal. Options being discussed: 1) MPs passing a law requiring Johnson to seek A50 extension. This would maximise “anti no-deal” vote; revocation would attract less Tory and Labour support 5/
2) Amending FTPA so election could take place before 31 Oct; 3) adding amendment calling for A50 extension to VONC expected to be tabled by @jeremycorbyn next month (Bercow key). Plus much more. Still, bumping odds of no-deal up from 25% to 30%. Heading for turbulent autumn ENDS
