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Where is EU on all #Brexit drama in Westminster? Short thread based on EU chats. Senior EU officials have believed for some time early elections are likely. Emerging view in Bxl & key EU capitals now is that those elections will be sought by Boris in early Sept - before Oct EUCO
Why? Early elex in Sept would allow Boris to 1) continue to campaign on platform he'll deliver Brexit by 31 Oct; 2) helping keep Brexit party "out of Westminster"; 3) capitalise on fact he's "restored his credibility" with Leavers with robust launch of his premiership
4) hurt Labour, whose policy remains in flux, leaving them open to challenge by Lib Dems; 5) face electorate while "allowing him to avoid consequences of no-deal" & having to ask for A50 extension. As one senior official notes "Boris has closed doors that weren't open. His prob..
is that once he gets into a serious negotiation with the EU, it'll be clear he has to ask for an A50 extension, as things aren't moving. We're only looking at the Political Declaration. He'll soon enter into the same dilemma as May." So how realistic is the EU's emerging thesis?
Lots of debate in Westminster. But consensus seems to be that if Boris wants to go to polls prior to Oct EUCO, he'll have to announce on 3 Sept - when Commons returns from recess. Wouldn't allow for any serious negotiations with EU. "But he could argue he's tried all through Aug"
& EU isn't moving. "From his perspective, I think it's a smart plan" concludes one senior EU official managing Brexit. His message: "I was ready to negotiate, and if you don't EU, it's your fault." ENDS
