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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Let’s go through some German foreign trade data to spot an interesting development. As I don’t think exports are more important than imports I’ll use the total trade. Let’s start with this years Jan - May figures (2019) (thread)
Jan-May 2018
Jan-May 2017
Jan-May 2016
Jan-May 2015
Jan-May 2014
In short: the UK was Germany’s fifth largest trading partner Jan-May 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017. It fell to sixth place in 2018 and to seventh in 2019. We’ll watch and see what happens 2020.
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
The special relationship between the UK and the US at times leaves the awkward feeling that the UK makes a lot of commitments - and the US, not necessarily. So far I count two big UK concessions: 1) Huawei (see here) and (1/2)
2) Iran. The UK co-negotiated the Iran deal and wants to protect it. Bolton seems to want to escalate the Iran conflict. May refused to be part of that, refused to join the US Hormuz mission, opted for a European one and got commitments from France and Germany... (2/3)
The new government abandoned that plan, joined the US in Hormuz - which France and Germany refused to do, fearing an escalation of the conflict. (3/3)
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
It is worthwhile to refute this argument by Vernon Bogdanor (who I rever as a constitutional law scholar as everyone else does) in full. So let me try. (Thread)
1) The question whether the UK is or is not a member of the EU is not a matter of UK law, but a matter of EU law. If the UK Parliament passes a law on November 2 retroactively extending the Brexit deadline this will not have any effect on the EU27. For them, the UK have left.
2) How does EU law handle the matter whether the UK is still or is not a member of the EU? The central provision is our beloved Art. 50 TEU. Art. 50(3) reads as follows:
Read 9 tweets
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
The government now wants a deal with lower level playing field obligations than in the Withdrawal Agreement - given it’s not pursuing a Customs Union. That’s all very interesting, but one point is missing from this debate (1/2)
Time. We are less than 12 weeks away from B-day. Let’s not pretend you can negotiate an FTA from scratch - getting the necessary mandate, consulting with stakeholders, negotiate, get it through the UK and the EU Parliament (both need to agree) in that time...
... particularly if you have not even made any textual proposals. The government wants to leave without a deal. And as I’ve written before, that is a decision that follows the political logic.
I do not like political logic.
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