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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1. Donald Trump is not hurting with college educated white voters because he didn't support stricter gun control measures. It isn't their top issue. It's not even close. Gun control is a temporary, marginal issue for them.

Which is more likely...
2. Which is more likely?

By supporting stricter gun control, Trump will win over college educated whites who don't view it as a primary voting issue...

Or...

By supporting gun control, Trump will depress base voters who view opposing it as a primary voting issue.

Exactly.
3. That's not to say they won't come together and find a limited solution that the base will accept. But that's almost never the case in D.C., which almost always overreacts and overreaches.

It's a risk for Trump. Far more downside. To pretend otherwise is not smart politics.
4. Voting coalitions do not exist in a vacuum. Supporting a public policy position to increase support from one voting bloc can and more often will impact the level of support from another voting bloc.

A winning strategy/campaign is one that maximizes support in that equation.
5. Building a winning coalition is a constant give and take to maximize support in the vacuum.

Adding "pandering" and/or "appeasement" to that equation almost never results in a net increase in support, let alone maximizes it.

Ds understand that better than Rs.
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More from @Peoples_Pundit see all

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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
General election polls at this point have zero predictive value. That's the case for polls with actual accuracy.

So, put it all in context.

Yes, Trump is vulnerable for two reasons. 1. Style. 2. Unprecedented suspension of ethics for the cause.

But it's all worthless now.
There are worthwhile Qs to ask the electorate even this early. But media polls don't ask them. Maybe they don't know what to ask. Maybe they're afraid of asking them.

Mood and priorities.

But frankly, the @FoxNewsPoll is worded very, very poorly.

E.g. What's an assault rifle?
@foxnewspoll Fox has essentially adopted the term for something that doesn't exist.

Another e.g.

"Background checks"?

What background checks? Run by whom?

That's shady, folks. Straight shady.
Read 4 tweets
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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
The election projection model @PPDNews was too accurate so Google black listed it along with other sites like @DailyCaller etc.

Funny, if it wasn't sinister and ideologically-driven, then why are many in the news index?

Those are manually reviewed by a member at Google News.
@PPDNews @DailyCaller There is no disputing it. There is a clear pre-2016 and post-2016 referral difference.

The crime is calling elections too accurately and reporting economic data fairly and without bias.

B/C we won't push a recession like everyone else? We won't try to hurt the American people?
@PPDNews @DailyCaller The election model at @PPDNews is literally the only one on the Internet that isn't run by liberals.

It also happens to have a better track record.

Think that's an accident?
Read 5 tweets
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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
Funny, just heard @ChrisStirewalt claim the other day that Americans won't do these jobs. Guess that was about as accurate as @FoxNewsPoll and Fox's "Decision Desk" showing North Carolina leaning @HillaryClinton the day before Election Day.

It was pretty condescending, too.
@ChrisStirewalt @foxnewspoll @HillaryClinton Fox's "Decision Desk" also pegged Florida as leaning @HillaryClinton the day before Election Day. Then, @SkyNews actually projected my state incorrectly, and had to "un-project" it.

Wait... which network is their sister network, again?

No wonder they elected a Fox call in 2018.
@ChrisStirewalt @foxnewspoll @HillaryClinton @SkyNews When @realDonaldTrump said we'd soon be calling him "Mr. Brexit," @ChrisStirewalt mocked him in "Don’t kid yourself, the polls are usually right,” claiming he was headed for “the worst popular vote defeat since 1984.”

Not. Even. Close. But...
peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections…
Read 6 tweets

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That Democrats are circulating a hit poll on a freshman member of their own party; and at that, a poll of only non-college educated white voters (a demographic that is overwhelmingly Republican) shows how fixated both parties are on the same 30% of voters. axios.com/alexandria-oca…
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13. Israel's regime is the biggest threat to peace in the world
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I want to talk about @realDonaldTrump's primary voter base and I'm going to use a quote from a CNN article to kick start it because I was one of those groups referenced it. /1

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