Thread by @NashSGC

This is the most wonderfully over optimistic statement I’ve heard since someone last said to me “Palace are getting into Europe this season mate, trust me”.

thetimes.co.uk/article/a-deal…

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Johnson is any closer to agreeing a #Brexit deal that can get through Parliament than Theresa May was. A few key points:

1. The deal (the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration) is exactly the same as it was when it was agreed almost a year ago. Every word, comma, semi-colon, & full stop is the same.

2. Parl. have rejected that deal 3 times for multiple, and often contradictory, reasons (e.g. ERGers saying it is too prescriptive & forces the UK into a customs union, while Lab front benchers say it is a “blind #Brexit” that doesn’t guarantee being in a customs union).

3. So the deal has to change (everyone knows this), but what changes can be secured that will get a new deal through this Parliament?

4. Johnson claims that removing the backstop is the way to get Parliamentary ratification. He points to the maj. that voted for the Brady amendment on 29 Jan, just as Theresa May did. But he must know that the EU were not swayed then...

...to remove the backstop in favour of it being replaced by unspecified alternatives, and are not likely to be persuaded now. (If you keep trying the same things again and again, expect the same result again and again).

5. No. 10 spokespeople claimed yesterday that a deal is more likely now as the EU believe the PM is serious about a #NoDealBreixt, when they never believed that May was. But...

6. ...if the govt’s whole strategy is to threaten the EU into dropping the backstop, they are going to be very disappointed. #Brexit

7. There is no ground swell of support building up amongst Member States for the removal of the backstop. #Brexit

8. No-one in Brussels is saying that it is more important to get a #Brexit deal with the UK than it is to demonstrate solidarity with Ireland.

9. No-one in Dublin is suddenly so trusting of the UK govt that they feel able to drop the insurance mechanism that they have worked so hard to get into the #Brexit deal.

10. And no-one in the EU wants to show weakness in the face of Britain at precisely the same moment as they have to demonstrate strength in their dealings with #Trump.

11. So the EU are not going to budge, and the backstop is not going to go.

If Johnson can’t change the deal, and Parliament will not ratify the deal without changes, the PM is left with only one option - change the Parliament. That is, of course, if he wants a deal at all. #Brexit