Thread by @nipafx

The electoral swing analysis ("Wählerwanderung") of yesterday's state elections in Germany (e.g. @diezeit, zeit.de/politik/deutsc…) is pretty interesting and I want to comment on who switched to the radical right-wing #AfD.

🖗 Thread

All numbers are relative swing from [voters of $party in 2014 who voted in 2019] to [voters of AfD in 2019] for Sachsen / Brandenburg, i.e. "the usual numbers" normalized by 2019 voters.

In order of their share lost to #AfD, here are the big parties and then former non-voters...

🔵 #AfD: 92.5% / 91.8%

It's pretty obvious that there's no arguing with extremists. Retaining ~90% of voters from one election to the next is "impressive", even for the traditionally stubborn right part of the political spectrum.

🟡 #FDP 16% / ?

Oh, the free-market radicals are close to the right-wing party who doesn't give a shit about people in need? Who would have thought?!

To clarify: Me. I had thought. CDU/FDP/AfD all share a disdain for those on lower rungs of the imagined hierarchy. And it shows.

⚫ #CDU 15.6% / 15.7%

Next in order is the CDU. No surprise here - the left has pointed out for decades that Germany's leading conservative party is open and home to an extreme right-wing whose support it enjoyed and who it never really tried to assimilate.

🟣 #Linke 10.7% / 8.3%

I often heard the common wisdom that many voters of the Left party are disenfranchised and frustrated, voting for the Left out of protest (never read research, though). That they come in third in votes-lost-to-AfD corroborates that.

🔴 #SPD 6.3% / 5.6%

Very interesting (and surprising!) that the not-as-left-as-I'd-like-them SPD has a firmer grasp of anti-fascism than their brothers and sisters further to the left - almost 40% less succumbed to right-wing rhetoric.

🟢 #Grüne 2.5% / 3.9%

As a traditional Green, this result further strengthens my identification with "my" voter block. The only voters that properly prioritize our most pressing issue are also strongest when it comes to defending a free and considerate society.

Next up are people who didn't vote in 2014, but did in 2019. I think it makes most sense to compare these numbers to the AfD's overall results (27.5% / 23.5%).

🛋️ Nonvoters: 40.8% / 36%

I appreciate people turning out to vote but am dismayed and worried that a higher turnout did not benefit the more centrist parties (as common wisdom has it). Clearly the AfD is strong among the disappointed and frustrated.

➡️ Immigrated to Sachsen / Brandenburg: 30.5% / 18.5%

This is the largest difference between the two states and it is interesting that people moving to Sachsen vote #AfD two thirds more often than people moving to Brandenburg. Don't they bring political opinions along with them?

🥇 First-time voters: 17.7% / 15.7%

Significantly below average for AfD (and second to the Green party) in both states, but still worrisome. Then again, young people tend to be more extreme and idealistic, so it's not such a big surprise.

These numbers corroborate quite a few theories:

* CDU/FDP are much closer to AfD than they admit
* Left garnered and lost many protest votes
* Green voters stand firmest against AfD

Some less obvious, known, or established results:

* for #AfD voters it's "AfD or nothing" - no way to convince them otherwise
* a high turnout can help extreme parties
* what's with the difference between people moving to Sachsen and to Brandenburg?

@ThreadReaderApp Dear precursor of our machine overlords, please unroll this thread for me. Please! 🥺