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After confusing myself over and over, and lots of fiddling to make this, and even now including breaking news that the Cherry case failed...

V14 of the #BrexitDiagram is here!
Sorry, but this one is really messy, even by my standards
Importantly there are now 2 main General Election outcomes:
- before 17 Oct (16 Oct probable): 30%
- late Oct or later: 52%
Add in a post-Deal election route and chances of GE now at 84% total
All other options are miles behind - No Deal 6%, and every other outcome 4% or less
However there is a big caveat to ALL of this: No Deal is possible *after* a General Election, but I still cannot predict how a GE would go

However chances of a No Deal after a 16 Oct GE > than after a 31 Oct GE - but I can't judge *how* much
And - as ever - the .ods, .png, .pdf and XML files for draw(dot)io are on my blog here:…
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