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What do the votes late on 9 Oct, and the prorogation of Parliament, mean for #Brexit?
It means a 15 October election is now ⛔️
The wider implications are on V18 of my #BrexitDiagram
It means a 15 October election is now ⛔️
The wider implications are on V18 of my #BrexitDiagram
The major issue is now:
What does Johnson do?
He has been mandate to seek an Article 50 extension. But will he do so? Would he sooner break the law, or resign, instead?
What does Johnson do?
He has been mandate to seek an Article 50 extension. But will he do so? Would he sooner break the law, or resign, instead?
Breaking the law leads to a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) when Parliament resumes on 14 October
Resigning leads to a temporary administration, and then to a General Election later in the autumn
Resigning leads to a temporary administration, and then to a General Election later in the autumn
The headline changes:
- chance of No Deal, for now at least ⬇️
- chance of a General Election ⬇️ a little, but still by far the most likely outcome
- chances of Brexit with a Deal ⬆️ a little
- chances of #PeoplesVote also ⬆️
- chance of No Deal, for now at least ⬇️
- chance of a General Election ⬇️ a little, but still by far the most likely outcome
- chances of Brexit with a Deal ⬆️ a little
- chances of #PeoplesVote also ⬆️
As ever the caveat - No Deal could happen *after* a General Election but I cannot currently predict how a General Election will go!
All the files (.png, .pdf, .ods, .xml) as ever on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
All the files (.png, .pdf, .ods, .xml) as ever on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
