Thread by @RYP__

I know this is in Pashto, but this is Sohail Shaheen, the official spokesman of the Qatari Beach Talibs saying they will only accept the removal of "all" American troops. A very different message to southern Afghans vs what Khalizad is saying on Tolo. bbc.com/pashto/afghani…

The talib's putative leader Mullah Baradar is leading the talks. He was living openly in Pakistan, rolled up in February 2010 and released by the ISI in October of 2018 to attend these sham talks. The talks have had zero impact on the violence. aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/a…

Half a dozen other members were in Gitmo and swapped for Bowe Bergdahl. They haven't set foot in Afghanistan since 2002. These Obama talks have been going on and off for a decade with the leader lying about Mullah Omar's death for two years. aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/m…

The taliban have been famous for false peace deals and surrenders ever since the infamous 2001 Qali Jangi event. There is nothing in the deal that is enforceable, beneficial or functional. Its just a pretend talking point for Trump 2020 about ending a war. US troops will stay.

The question is how long will it take before the public realized they have been duped? Just like nonsensical talks with North Korea, unproductive activities in Venezuela and zero impact on Iran, Trump hasmade no progress other tweeting empty wins.

We will stay because of the massive infrastructure at Bagram and our need to bookend Iran. We will essentially be hiding inside the blast walls to direct contractor supported anti terrorism ops against the two dozen terror groups. Oh wait you said "contractors"?

Under Trump the "invisible army" has almost doubled to 2,847 official contractors in Afghanistan. Outsourced targeting, aviation, logistics and other support mechanisms has increased dramatically outside of the countyr creating a false number. taskandpurpose.com/contractors-af…

Even Trump's monkey numbers for 8,600 U.S. troops for Afghanistan after reductions is 400 soldiers higher than when Obama left office. Add the contractor increase and you have greater U.S. presence and fake peace deal. usatoday.com/story/news/pol…

But wait there's more. The key to all of this is funding. Afghanistan has an artificial security force that it cannot afford. The US will simply move the war logistics outside the country, the Euros will train and we do CT...while funding the taliban. nytimes.com/2019/02/28/us/…

Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are desperate to get into Afghanistan. They were the first two countries to recognize the talibs in '96 and they offered to send two 2500 Muslim Brigades in 2017. Guess who wants to train and support them with air power? talkingpointsmemo.com/news/the-princ…

So with the Arab dictators paying foreign fighters in Afghanistan and Trump playing hide the pickle with contractors and accounting based in other countries we will pretend to be at peace with Afghanistan.

If all this sounds familiar, it is, fighting the war from outside, using CIA and $3B in Saudi money to hire local and foreign crazies managed by a pissed off Saudi rich kid, buying Israeli weapons and creating rebels out of poor refugees and rural Afghans trtworld.com/opinion/1979-t…

The origins of the Taliban are from the madrassas, a Saudi-funded system of education that was linked to military recruitment. They still exist and they are still used to recruit terrorists, suicide bombers and jihadis for operations in Afghanistan brookings.edu/research/saudi…

The saddest thing will be the regression of women. The US govt and media used women's rights as a focal point while overthrowing the talibs, although little to no outrage was directed at their backers in Pakistan or Saudi Arabia. This will all change. theculturetrip.com/asia/afghanist…

RYP Trivia: I know Soheil Shaheen, he took me around Kabul in 96 when he was editor of the Kabul Times. He confessed he had to hire women to write his articles (who I met) but begged me no tell or he would get in trouble.
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