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Nigeria is a severely threatened place. We are surrounded by Francophone countries whose allegiances to France neutralizes this ECOWAS sentimentality (Cameroon isn’t a member). At continental level, South Africa is Africa’s more favored and preferred ally of developed countries.
In the sub-regional balance of power, the francophone alliances are a powerful force. This was demonstrated during the Biafran War when France supported the separatist group and the Francophone countries meant our borders were porous. Ivory Coast also supported the pro-Biafra.
After the war, Nigeria realized the essence of building alliances, and we extended such gesture by selling oil to our energy-poor neighbours at concessionary prices. Later clashes like that invasion of Nigeria by Chad and the Bakassi standoff are proof of extant security risks.
Our assertive foreign policy in the past was driven by the oil economy during its boom, which is no longer a leverage in external affairs. We failed to build an industrially viable country when we had the resources. Corruption mainly forestalled all attempts to build industries.
In this diplomatic “standoff” with South Africa, there are too many things at stake. South Africa used to be a bully that Nigeria restrained through proxy supports to its neighbours like Angola, and our relationship has long evolved into sibling rivalry, especially economically.
Forget Shoprite and DSTV for a second, Nigeria does not rank high among South Africa’s export destinations. Nigeria accounts for less than 1% of SA’s exports. In 2018, Nigeria’s imports from SA amounted to just $514.3 Million while SA’s imports from Nigeria were $3.83 Billion!
Nigeria is a commodity-dependent country. And SA has highly diversified economy, with an industrial structure we can’t match. When emerging economies were seeking partners in Africa, they approached SA and made it a part of BRICS, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA.
To see the security implication of a strain in Nigeria - South Africa relations, we must note the interceptions of Nigeria-bound arms by South Africa in 2014 (a private jet attempting to smuggle arms through SA) and 2018 (a ship loaded with arms and reportedly bound for Nigeria).
Nigeria’s unstable relations with the West mean our arms supplies in tacking internal security are not guaranteed. Obama administration refused to sell arms to Nigeria, citing the American Leahy Law, which prohibits the US from selling arms to countries that violate human rights.
We could’ve built a country that South Africa can’t hold by the balls, with a domestic industrial capability that does not rely on external support this heavily. But, as it stands, we are dialoguing with South Africa from the position of weakness.
The lesson this reluctance to punish South Africa teaches us is the elementary understanding of foreign policy decision-making, that you can only go for the jugular if you have the capability. But, with South Africa, we are that poor-performing brother who must do better.
Nigeria’s image crisis is an offshoot of its domestic economy. If we want to be respected, then we owe it to ourselves to position Nigeria as an industrially independent country, and with the diplomatic means of restraining misbehaving allies like South Africa.
