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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
One has to suspect that the idea of the PM working towards a Brexit deal is not particularly genuine, given the uproar there would be in his own party, including within Cabinet, if he were to go for a Northern Ireland-only backstop bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
As has been said by many others, Johnson has repeated almost the entire May negotiating playbook, at great speed, without every really seeming convincing on any particular option. We'll find out - not from the UK Government - how serious they really are
Ways in which Johnson's negotiating approach is like that of May part 94 - the secrecy means we find out most of what is going on from the EU and EU Member States - also meaning they mostly control the public negotiating narrative
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Reinforcements found for hole digging exercise.

Pity @CarolineFlintMP and @SKinnock didn't ask the views of Northern Ireland business, the EU, the many trade, customs and border experts expressing contrary views, serious independent analysts etc.
@CarolineFlintMP @SKinnock RIP "MPs for a deal", aged 1 day, the shortest lived attempt to find a Brexit compromise yet. Compromise includes an acceptance of the world that is, not the imaginary one where the UK calls all the shots. prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
@CarolineFlintMP @SKinnock Here are some of the recent proposals of the Alternative Arrangements Commission. Spot the Northern Ireland connection to proposals to remove level playing field provisions and Geographical Indications.

(answer. none)
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Reposting from yesterday. The Government is still peddling Brexit impossibilities, and there's still realistic compromise proposals
Should have been 'no' realistic compromise proposals to date. But here's the thing - negotiations can tackle problems, produce compromises. But only if entered in good faith, with specificity, with flexibility.

Such an approach has not by and large suited UK politicians.
I proposed improvements to the Brexit deal back in January. I stand by them. But they were too remain-y for Brexiteers and too leave-y for remainers. A country can't successfully negotiate externally faced with such a domestic split linkedin.com/pulse/brexit-d…
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Back to trying to decode Brexit talks. Suddenly the talk is of a UK proposal based around an all-Ireland SPS (food products basically) zone which the UK will present to the EU at the European Council on Oct 17. For now there seem few grounds for optimism 1/
The EU's checks on animals / food products are far more exacting than in any other area, thus the ERG associated Alternative Arrangements Commission experts struggled to even put forward a solution without some all-island commonality. This seems to what the UK Gov proposes 2/
This proposal actually offers no guarantee of no border infrastructure, as at any time Northern Ireland can diverge, requiring border checks if the Republic chooses not to diverge from the EU as will be the case. Not sensible, not going to be acceptable 3/
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) we have to talk about the mythical #Brexit deal

I saw this and was originally going to write a thread about the gullibility of leavers but then it occurred to me, why shouldn't they believe Johnson is working towards a better deal? Everyone is telling them it's possible
2) all of us in the Remain bubble understand the duplicity of Johnson, and the play acting of the Labour party on "jobs first brexit", and even why the opposition parties are sticking with "stop no deal"and not "stop #Brexit"

But consider how all this looks to your average voter
3) LDs, Greens,SNP, PC are all clear - there is no deal better than staying in the EU

But all rebel alliance parties together are certainly *not* saying that. A fair few people, especially but not only Labour, are pretending that a better deal is possible,if only we asked for it
Read 11 tweets
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Sydney Nash
@NashSGC
This is the most wonderfully over optimistic statement I’ve heard since someone last said to me “Palace are getting into Europe this season mate, trust me”.

thetimes.co.uk/article/a-deal…
There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Johnson is any closer to agreeing a #Brexit deal that can get through Parliament than Theresa May was. A few key points:
1. The deal (the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration) is exactly the same as it was when it was agreed almost a year ago. Every word, comma, semi-colon, & full stop is the same.
Read 15 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Reading the excellent @ConUnit_UCL blog post on what happens after new Tory leader is appointed:
constitution-unit.com/2019/06/30/six…

And then trying to put that into my latest #BrexitDiagram...
Imagine the following happens:
1) Johnson chosen 23 July
2) 3 Tory MPs cross House, Tory+DUP has no majority any more
3) Queen cannot appoint Johnson as a result, 2 weeks to find a solution
Two routes from this are pretty obvious:
1) Johnson softens his Brexit position, and tries to win confidence back
2) No solution found so UK heads for General Election
Read 5 tweets
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets

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