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The question is not really whether Johnson would dump the ERG, DUP or of course the whole of Northern Ireland. He self-evidently would. It’s more a case of whether parliament - and in the subsequent election, Nigel Farage - would let him get away with it
First question is how he’d sell it. He’s called himself minister for the Union (lol). He agreed when May said no UK PM could ever subscribe to it. A Northern Ireland backstop is just as ‘anti-democratic’ as the all-UK one, it just affects fewer people.
NI would be exempt from the UK’s trade deals. There’d have to be customs checks between NI and GB as well as checks between the EU single market (NI) and GB single market (not NI). It could be the first concrete step to a united Ireland.
Clearly none of this intrinsically good or bad (except for idea people ought to have a say over their tariffs/standards, eg by remaining in room where they’re decided). They’re just political obstacles which Johnson has emphatically put in his way and would now have to dismantle.
There’s also inconvenient point that parliament would need to approve it before Eur Council. New law states MPs must approve a deal by Sat 19 Oct. Summit ends on the Fri. Parliament cannot scrutinise & vote on it that day. Which means PM must still, by law, request an extension.
Bottom line: NI-only backstop doesn’t make life easier for Johnson. Labour isn’t going to vote for it without a ref attached, the Tories will fully combust, and Farage will scream betrayal from the rooftops. It may be Johnson’s only way out - and will probably still defeat him.
