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Can confirm that there was a circulated version of this document from August 2nd that said “base case scenario” on it... told that does not contradict the idea it is at same time the reasonable worst case planning assumption...
That does sound a bit confused, but it is also worth saying that the core assumption here on trade flow (40-60%) across the channel has been described as “Reasonable Worst Case” in other documents, eg from Border Force.
So an explanation is that “base” refers to base parameters such as leaving on WTO terms on Oct 31st, upon which “reasonable worst case scenarios” are then built, such as the 40-60% reduction in freight trade flow.
the phrase definitely was there though, at that time.
the phrase definitely was there though, at that time.
FM @NicolaSturgeon confirms at Holyrood that UK Gov released Yellowhammer No deal document is same as one circulated to Scottish Government - “the only difference is that the version we had, had the title ‘Base Scenario’ rather than ‘Worst case scenario’”
It seems that one was an official document and the other “base scenario” was a Cabinet paper... again Government says “base” refers to the assumption of WTO Brexit on Oct 31st. The reasonable worst case assumptions then build on that base.
And here it is - two different versions of the same document on the same day:
Government now put this explanation on record:
“phrase ‘base scenario’ describe some baseline parameters -such as UK will leave on particular date and be treated as a third country by EU - upon which reasonable worst case assumptions are then built” brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/2019/09/12/yel…
“phrase ‘base scenario’ describe some baseline parameters -such as UK will leave on particular date and be treated as a third country by EU - upon which reasonable worst case assumptions are then built” brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/2019/09/12/yel…
