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Some thoughts on Britain's crisis.
The Tory party is in a war between two main factions: one that votes for economic competence and one that votes for cultural values. No Deal Brexit makes it inevitable.
Theresa May had three years to avoid this war. She failed.
The Tory party is in a war between two main factions: one that votes for economic competence and one that votes for cultural values. No Deal Brexit makes it inevitable.
Theresa May had three years to avoid this war. She failed.
May didn't just fail to create a compromise. She failed to stop the radicalisation of the 'cultural values' side, so now freedom and patriotism are synonymous with No Deal Brexit.
There is no compromise possible with them. So, fiscal conservatives have to suck it or leave.
There is no compromise possible with them. So, fiscal conservatives have to suck it or leave.
The side that values economic competence didn't really see this coming. They thought it could be avoided but now they truly feel rudderless and blindsided, and slowly lashing out.
Hence the Tory civil war.
But it also creates problems for Labour between its two main factions.
Hence the Tory civil war.
But it also creates problems for Labour between its two main factions.
Theres May and the Daily Mail didn't just polarise their own side but Labour voters too.
Labour's two main factions - those that vote for socialism and those that vote on cultural values - are also split.
There was a brief civil war among Socialists, but the Lexit side lost.
Labour's two main factions - those that vote for socialism and those that vote on cultural values - are also split.
There was a brief civil war among Socialists, but the Lexit side lost.
But I think Corbyn has been losing voters on the side that think Brexit is about our cultural values, since the GE of 2017.
Those people are moving to the Lib Dems because they want a strong anti-Brexit voice, which is now a totemic cultural issue, and Corbyn doesn't provide it.
Those people are moving to the Lib Dems because they want a strong anti-Brexit voice, which is now a totemic cultural issue, and Corbyn doesn't provide it.
So May didn't just help radicalise her own side, but Labour voters too. Hence the resurgence of the Lib Dems.
The accusations of anti-Semitism also put off many who vote on cultural values (but largely, not socialists). Made it easier for them to stomach the Lib Dems too.
The accusations of anti-Semitism also put off many who vote on cultural values (but largely, not socialists). Made it easier for them to stomach the Lib Dems too.
I don't think Boris Johnson can find compromise for his civil war. The cultural values side is too angry and have BXP as an option.
Those who want economic compentence may live with No Deal if they mistrust Corbyn more. Of they will defect to the Lib Dems too.
Those who want economic compentence may live with No Deal if they mistrust Corbyn more. Of they will defect to the Lib Dems too.
I think Corbyn has an easier route to stitch together his 2017 coalition.
But I don't think he recognises the challenge ahead of him. I think most of his advisors are focused on the economic argument and don't understand the culture wars.
But I don't think he recognises the challenge ahead of him. I think most of his advisors are focused on the economic argument and don't understand the culture wars.
