On today’s Juncker-Johnson meeting, important to remember European Commission negotiates on behalf of EU leaders. Juncker does not have legal powers to change #Brexit deal BUT /1
Juncker is v much in favour of finding a deal a) for good of EU and importantly b) as part of his own legacy. His last day in office as Commission President coincides with date by which the PM wants UK out of EU .. 31st Oct BUT /2
PM’s current negotiation offer doesnt fly with EU. Perceived to be: “We, UK will compromise and allow Northern Ireland to follow EU regulatory rules on food safety, you EU meet us “half way” and compromise on single market. We’ll work out the border issue with technology ..” /3
This alone is unacceptable to EU. Backstop replacement needs details and specifics. Cannot be aspirational. Eg EU needs to know what is coming into its single market. Customs, VAT are key. IF UK had detailed plan, then it could ask EU for compromise on SPECIFICS. That would../4
Put Brussels under more pressure than no deal threats. Why? Because it’s not only UK voters who are “fed up with #Brexit “. EU businesses are also losing out financially with all the uncertainty. Believed to affect ratings of EU leaders of neighbouring countries eg NL. BUT /5
As always, EU keen to do a deal and move on does not equate EU open to doing deal at any price. European businesses make more money out of the single market as whole than from trade with UK alone. Hugely compromising single market is a no-go for EU, whatever PM threatens so../6
As long as UK proposals remain “flabby and aspirational” as one key EU diplomat described, EU wont budge. IF UK gives details on replacing backstop and has limited specific, targeted requests for compromise, EU will look to Ireland. If acceptable to Ireland.. /7
Then most likely will be ok’d by other EU leaders. Also if a realistic (in eyes of Brussels) backstop request made by Johnson gov but Dublin not agreeable, then Ireland could well come under “gentle pressure” from other member states. Devil as always in the detail.. BUT /8
Detail is missing from UK negotiators for now, so there’s no EU pressure on Dublin to compromise. NB Gentle pressure is one thing but I see no appetite amongst EU leaders to ‘throw Ireland under a bus’ (never mind weaken their single market) however fed up they are of #Brexit /9
