Thread by @yarbatman

1. The US no longer depends on Middle East oil, but China sure does, and that's why the region will continue to matter to the US. It's the key arena to check Chinese power via energy security.

Seen this way, Iran is positioning itself as the fulcrum of the US-China rivalry.

2. Neither superpower can achieve its ends in the Middle East unless they have Iranian strategic buy-in. The US can't use patronage of KSA/UAE to sustain Chinese economic dependency on the US-led order if US patronage does nothing to defend the KSA/UAE.

3. Likewise, China can't source cheap energy unless Iran is able export and allows others to export through the Strait of Hormuz. The view in Tehran is that dissolution of the JCPOA was a symptom of a larger geopolitical shift. Iran is reacting accordingly to stake its claim.

4. Arguably, at this stage, a US-China detente is less likely than a US-Iran detente or a upgrading of the China-Iran relationship. Those are both positive outcomes for Iran in this moment of flux and the recent escalations may reflect such an aim.

5. However, with the last era of superpower rivalry in the Middle East, Iran would prefer to remain non-aligned, but that would require other regional actors to make the same decision. That’s why Iran has been pushing a regional security architecture.

6. Let’s just hope that something less than an all out war suffices to get the regions leaders to the table so that they aren’t made pawns in the nascent US-China conflict.