Thread by @GershomG

🔴🔴Actual drop in Likud strength is 8 or 9 seats out of 120 in parliament.
Likud took 35 last time, then merged with Kahalon's party for total of 39. Netanyahu made deal with Feiglin, who got a seat's worth of votes in April but didn't get in.
This time Likud got 31.
@yeselson

@yeselson One part of change:
Netanyahu's racist attacks on Arab voters did not bring out Likud base in greater numbers.
Did help bring 20% increase in turnout in Arab towns.

@yeselson Also: Three seats shifted from Likud count to Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Is Our Home Party.
Those are right-wingers fed up with coalition with ultra-Orthodox dating back to Menachem begin.

@yeselson The Yemina alliance of religious nationalists got 7 seats. Poor showing. Bennet and Shaked just missed getting in last time w/3 seats worth of votes; other parties in alliance got 5 seats in April.
Far-right, racist Kahanist party did not get in. Praise the Lord.

@yeselson Tentative conclusion re Yemina: There's no longer natural alliance of those religious Jews who integrate into general society and religious nationalists who self-segregate. Some of Bennett/Shaked voters went elsewhere.

@yeselson Success of Lieberman's secular right wing party, and Blue and White running on promise of govt without religious parties is warning esp to Meretz/Democratic Camp: Secularism isn't your monopoly. Nor is disgust w/Netanyahism.

@yeselson To garner votes, left has to act like, well, *leftists.* Talk wages. Housing. Health care. Better education. And yes, peace. Hope for future - not disgust w/parts of Israeli society.

@yeselson Democratic Camp's open racism toward Orly Levy was elitism, not leftism. Probably also some misogyny. She joined the left, should have welcomed her. If left can't break out of Tel Aviv, has no future.

@yeselson Another effect of Netanyahu's constant attack on Arab parties: Boomerang effect may have made it *easier* for parties of center & left to do what have needed to do for decades: Open, welcoming coalition w/parties backed by Arab community.

@yeselson In short: Not clear who won this election. Clear that right lost it.
Third round at beginning 2020 entirely possible. Parties of left should be preparing now.

@yeselson And this: Usual expectation is that soldiers' votes will boost right. Israeli young people all right wing yadda yadadda.
This time soldier's votes added seat to Blue & White. Yes, right of center. But moderate image, and seen as strategic choice to dump Netanyahu.

@yeselson Following up: in #israelex vote for Likud & Parties that merged with it dropped from 1.4 to 1.1 million since April - amid higher turnout.

@yeselson Here's the non-Twitter version, w/whole sentences: Your guide to Netanyahu's loss, the old left's poor showing, and what to watch for next in the #Israel political game:
prospect.org/article/netany…
@AddieStan @speechboy71 @juliaioffe @HeerJeet @schaller67 @SarahAWildman @theprospect