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Given all the activity, the briefing, the interviews and speeches, where do we stand in Brexit negotiations, I am asked... so I think an intended big week from the UK side has yet again gone wrong, revealing the continued weaknesses of not understanding the EU or Ireland... 1/
Last week the UK talk was all about all-Ireland SPS, and this seems to have been received well. Too well, in fact, sparking renewed talk of a Northern Ireland only backstop, which I'm sure wasn't the intention and was duly denied by the PM 2/
No problem per se with the idea of all-Ireland SPS solving some of the Brexit / Ireland issue - that's part of the backstop after all. The problem is only part, and whereas the EU are modestly encouraged with a UK step towards reality, the UK side I think believe it decisive 3/
Indeed, the UK side doesn't even go full way towards a genuine alignment of SPS (food products basically), still wishing Northern Ireland to have a veto to win over the DUP, which is not acceptable to EU due to uncertainty. But that's to a degree put aside... 4/
On the basis of a friendly reception towards all-Ireland SPS the UK then briefs heavily that a deal is more likely than before, though to be fair not saying anything like a certainty. Various commentators and media repeat fairly similar messages, to puzzlement of others... 5/
Now we still don't know if the Number 10's goal is really a deal or no-deal, but at the very least those wanting a deal are being given their time to show how this could work. And if it fails, it looks credible enough that the EU get blamed for no-deal 6/
Then on Thursday we get the non-papers to the EU and the Barclay speech. See, we met Merkel's 30 day timeline for written ideas, and here's our 'political' negotiator explaining how the EU should respond to what we've put forward... 7/
As @pmdfoster explains well the Barclay speech is basically a set of threats to the EU as to why they have to break their red lines on the backstop - because of the impact on Ireland, member states like Spain... 8/
@pmdfoster I didn't think it would take long to hear EU views on UK non-papers particularly if they didn't think much of them, and sure enough various well connected people like @JenniferMerode and @pmdfoster (again) were soon hearing there was no new substance... 9/
@pmdfoster @JenniferMerode The EU view is not surprising, since the entire UK approach seems to be based on the Alternative Arrangements Commission report which was rejected as a basis for replacing the backstop by the EU, as well as by various organisations across Ireland 10/
@pmdfoster @JenniferMerode So it seems that based on a friendly response to a credible bit of the UK's proposal Government decided to go full out on the rest, backed up with a bit of threat, thinking that might ultimately be enough for the EU to sign up, and if not, their fault. 11/
@pmdfoster @JenniferMerode What of the EU side? Frustrated and wanting a solution seems the general consensus. But a proper solution, meaning movement mostly has to come from the UK side in terms of understanding borders and Ireland - and not as @kevinhorourke notes UK threats 12/
@pmdfoster @JenniferMerode @kevinhorourke We can go back over the reasons for the backstop and borders another time, but suffice to say a hugely complex system built up over years can't easily be imagined away, and UK proposals for customs and VAT to name but two have never been close to acceptable 13/
@pmdfoster @JenniferMerode @kevinhorourke Meanwhile to make things worse the UK Government still can't guarantee any concessions the EU makes will lead to a deal getting through parliament - hence the frankly silly talk of EU refusing an extension if a deal isn't voted through - won't happen 14/
@pmdfoster @JenniferMerode @kevinhorourke In short, either more misreading by the UK side, or a cynical effort they knew wouldn't work (both could be true of different individuals) and we reach the end of the week no closer on substance of a deal than at the start - and probably less trust around 15/
@pmdfoster @JenniferMerode @kevinhorourke There remains the vaguest possibility of a Johnson deal rebranding the backstop and putting in place a program of replacement by other arrangements, or even less of NI only backstop. But the EU crossing red lines because of UK threats isn't realistic. Back to square one 16/ end
@pmdfoster @JenniferMerode @kevinhorourke PS worth adding - I think this EU hope that the UK will move after party conference to a Northern Ireland only backstop is as extreme wishful thinking as that on the UK side about EU breaking red lines. Politically nearly impossible.
