Thread by @jonworth

Trying to get my head around these can-Johnson-find-a-Brexit-loophole stories

This explains what John Major feared:
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…

And Reuters has a list of possible loopholes:
reuters.com/article/uk-bri…

Neither piece is quite right IMHO

First of all, what has the Government said?

That they will respect the law, and that they will not extend

*SO* either the law doesn't apply or has a loophole, something else prevents the extension, or indeed someone else requests the extension

Ideas that can't happen are surely:
⛔️ writing 2 letters (the mandated one, and one saying the opposite) - this would be unlawful
⛔️ suspend the law through an Order of Council - this one (that was Major's fear) @ProfMarkElliott judges to be unlawful

⛔️ conflict between the Benn Act 19 Oct date and the Withdrawal Act 31 Oct date - EU law is supreme over national law, so the Article 50 timetable trumps both of these
⛔️ Britain vetoing its own extension request isn't possible due to the way the Benn Act is structured

Ideas that might work:
❓ that the Commons passes a Meaningful Vote before 19 Oct, but then rejects the law implementing the Withdrawal Agreement 31 Oct - this is technically possible, but we know about it so MPs can avoid the trap

❓ somehow the EU rejects the Article 50 Extension request - this is possible if the EU thinks there is no purpose to the extension. But if a General Election or Referendum is to be organised the EU will extend. No amount of belligerent rhetoric from Johnson will change that

❓ the EU could offer the UK an extension, but I am not sure this would be politically sensible. Art 50 says
"unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period"
Note "in agreement", not "at the request of"

❓ the @JolyonMaugham / Vince "nobilie officium" case at the Inner House of the Court of Session results in the court sending the extension request on Johnson's behalf - all explained here:
goodlawproject.org/rule-law-not-t…

So ultimately I conclude that all of this is likely a distraction.

Johnson is probably going to either
- bite the bullet and extend
or
- resign so as to not submit the request

Or were he to break the law he will face a VONC or be taken to court

/ends