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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
So I hear from senior Irish sources that UK non paper is mirror image of Irish Govt no deal plans to protect Single Market. Think about that. UK plans for deal = Irish Govt plans for no deal. Obviously no way these plans can be sold domestically other than in no deal scenario 1/4
Downing St officials at party Conf are defensive. Suspect malicious leak from Bxl. Argue leaks are misrepresentation of UK proposals focusing on one item from non-paper drawn up few weeks ago. No checks at border is absolute commitment. Not proposing a string of customs posts 2/4
BJ likely to say something about UK offer in his closing speech to Tory conference Weds. Full detail expected at end of week & talk of "tunnel" between two sides as I flagged earlier in week. But EU sceptical. Senior official on #Brexit tells me: "Customs part is unworkable 3/4
...Either he shifts to the backstop model for that part (and we are in business) or not (and then it’s no deal)." Things are about to get very hairy indeed. I'm back to Bxl tomorrow. ENDS
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So strong working assumption of most (including me) is that A50 extension & elections are now almost inevitable. But what if we're all wrong? As one senior EU official says to me: "Whoever sends the letter, we need to know why we do this. That's the REAL question." However 1/4
There is no way for the European Council to mandate an election (or a referendum). And the way an election comes about - or indeed, if one does even come about - is incredibly uncertain. Polling numbers look terrible for Labour & Lib Dems. They are getting cold feet 2/4
At same time, they can't agree on caretaker PM to head a National Unity Govt - @jeremycorbyn wants it; no one wants Corbyn. Could we be stuck? No elections? No NU Govt? Just a @BorisJohnson zombie Govt with absolutely nowhere to go or turn? 3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
I do think this another unwise & unhelpful intervention by @eucopresident. It certainly does NOT reflect view of some key EU capitals, who actually believe BJ wants a deal but that his starting point was too far apart from EU position. Still, they would like to tread much more 1/
cautiously than this. Clearly see game being played in London but want to rise above it. As one adviser to a Head of State of a large MS told me in the last few days: "Our position won't change just because UK shouts louder." This is about substance (SM integrity; Ireland) 2/3
Not tactics & calculations about what election may/may not deliver. EU27 very capable of reading polls. They see risks of BJ majority & no deal after election, but can't sacrifice principles above. Tusks's tweet risks blurring that message; playing into politics in London ENDS
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
We think @BorisJohnson will pursue a strategy some aides describe as “being dragged, kicking and screaming” into an extension, so Leave voters know he is doing it against his will. This is why he still promises “no delay” even though he knows prospects of a deal are remote 1/4
He may play for time on 19 Oct, so the Benn Act is tested in courts. But politically, outright refusal to obey the law is a non-starter; it could provoke several resignations including those of Geoffrey Cox & @RobertBuckland. Sooner or later, BJ will send letter required by Act
It will likely describe the proposed delay as “Parliament’s extension”, not one sought by Govt. Initially, Boris allies were nervous about impact of an extension. But during last week’s Tory conference they have clearly become more confident - cheered by opinion poll & focus 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Reports👇saying Johnson government is briefing that Ireland will be under huge pressure to compromise over backstop bc of impact of no deal but reality is a) minority Irish gov under most domestic pressure NOT to buckle over backstop /1 irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…
b)There’s little EU appetite “throw Ireland under a bus”. EU diplomats say “gentle pressure” would be put on Dublin if they thought current UK backstop proposals were realistic BUT they don’t .. so no EU pressure on Varadkar to compromise right now /2
Where there is EU behind-the-scenes pressure on Dublin is to ensure their no deal #Brexit border preparations are up to scratch to protect single market .. though Brussels acknowledges the political sensitivity of those preparations for Varadkar /3
Read 3 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Spoiler alert: substance of what @JunckerEU said last night in Sky interview was NOT new (will explain below). Irish backstop remains main sticking point in renegotiations. EU, UK positions remain far apart ALTHOUGH EU keen to avoid another Brexit extension find a deal asap /1
1)Juncker said we want a deal: we know that
2)Juncker said EU is ready to replace the backstop: He said this on Weds at the European parliament. The EU has said this to Boris Johnson since he became PM. The Withdrawal Agreement itself has provisions for replacing the backstop /2
3) Juncker said a deal is possible by 31 Oct: EU has said that before too with the qualification that UK must come up with “realistic, legally operable solutions on how to replace the backstop”. EU doesnt view UK current position ticking that box /3
Read 11 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Olly Robbins is in Brussels today for more #Brexit talks.

Top of the agenda is the 'insoluble' Irish backstop issue - but how 'insoluble' it really? Is there a way through?

Maybe. Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, the problem, real quick.

EU needs 'backstop' that works in all eventualities, including a breakdown in future relationship talks at the end of transition.

With no border in Ireland, there "must" logically be checks between NI and GB to protect single market. /2
The problem is that puts a *customs* border in the Irish Sea, and the UK government cannot live with that, since it splits up UK.

Theresa May was very hard over on this point in her speech in Belfast. Barnier's Task Force 50 blanched last week when they saw how hard over. /3
Read 22 tweets

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