Thread by @BethRigby

Today first time MPs may vote for a Brexit deal 3 yrs after vote to leave EU
Challenges on timing & substance
- On substance: Key moment c7pm when MPs vote on 2nd reading of bill. Do MPs in principle support it? (After this come amendments but it an imp first hurdle) 1/

On timing. Key vote 7.30pm. The programme motion, when MPs decide whether to vote down the govt breakneck speed 3-day timetable. Many MPs very cross about all of this (as per my railroad tweet last night). IF govt loses this, PM’s Oct 31 deadline to leave (with deal) gone 2/

So... IF win 2nd reading but lose prog motion. No 10 then a choice whether to press on with deal or pull bill & try to pivot to No Deal. (Which you’ll know us now not it it’s gift after PM formally requested Brexit extension on Sat evening) 3/

On the substance of the deal: Growing concerns on the risk of No Deal at end of transition period end 2020 (Starmer’s view WAB is ‘trapdoor to No Deal’). Explainer here via my excellent former @FT colleagues

And the NI protocol. Barclay confirmed y’day firms in NI would have to submit declaration forms for goods heading to rest of GB. Checks btwn NI-GB so UK can sign trade deals around world. Could be that DUP vote against 2nd reading & Prog motion today.. (explainer via @FT)

@FT IF bill passes 2nd reading (opposition source says likely), amendments in focus
1/ Closing No Deal trapdoor (HoC has form in blocking No Deal)
2/ CU: So tight. One Nation Tories won't back. But understand SNP (DUP?) will do 'whatever it takes to amend bill to best effect'
/6

This program motion so imp today.
IF MPs vote the timetable down, effectively forcing an extension, How does govt respond?
Ask for extension & move to GE? (Lab always said let’s have ext & then GE). What is Tory version of Brexit then with Brexit Party breathing down necks?