I predict China is headed for 4.5% growth in the next 3 years or so.
Also: China "bulls" tend to think China's growth forecasts are reflections of the government's omnipotence, and that it only slows down when it wants to.
I heavily doubt it. I think the growth targets are mostly just forecasts, and China would rather not slow down.
I heavily doubt it. I think the growth targets are mostly just forecasts, and China would rather not slow down.
Oh, and China "bears" tend to think that China's growth numbers have been consistently overstated and that China's economy, as a result, is actually much smaller than official numbers suggest.
I think a little of this does happen, but it's fairly modest.
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
I think a little of this does happen, but it's fairly modest.
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
BTW my 4.5% prediction comes from:
1. The rate industrial output is now increasing (5%)
2. The numbers in Eichengreen, Park & Shin (2013): nber.org/papers/w18673
3. The experiences of South Korea and Japan
1. The rate industrial output is now increasing (5%)
2. The numbers in Eichengreen, Park & Shin (2013): nber.org/papers/w18673
3. The experiences of South Korea and Japan
